智能体足球比赛预测大师多 AI 分身足球数据分析与风险评估系统

比赛详情

单场比赛的预测、赔率、AI 分身、风控和裁决摘要。

后台补采/证据计划返回今日比赛
风险提示

本系统仅提供足球数据分析与风险评估参考，不承诺任何比赛结果。足球比赛具有不确定性，请理性参考。

周日006德乙·05/10 19:30已完场

杜塞多夫 对 埃沃斯堡

比分：3 : 1
场馆：资料待补充
城市：资料待补充
裁判：资料待补充

预测与推荐摘要

推荐分用于表达综合分析强度，不等同于比赛胜率或结果保证。

最终胜平负：负谨慎推荐

away_win
推荐分63/100
D低风险不建议推荐

胜平负基础概率

主胜
2839.0%
平
3291.0%
客胜
3870.0%

基础概率，仅供数据参考，不代表结果保证。

两个优先比分

0-1第 1 候选

该比分与负方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

0-2第 2 候选

该比分与负方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

两个优先总进球

大小球判断：偏小

1球第 1 候选

1球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

2球第 2 候选

2球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

最终理由

综合当前可验证资料后，系统选择负，并已把缺失数据转为补充采集和风险说明。

风险与证据

爆冷风险：低异常/轮换风险：低
analysis_only_not_high_confidence_poolauto_gap_collection_triggeredavailable_data_predictiondraw_detector_useddraw_trap_riskhierarchical_pattern_memory_usedkelly_ev_filterlow_prediction_scoremarket_probability_baselinepoisson_score_distributionprediction_experience_usedsimilar_review_memory_usedquant_value_gate_cautiouspattern_recommendation_gate_cautious

主要证据

  • 最终胜平负为负，不会因局部数据缺口停止预测。
  • 推荐分 63 来自方向清晰度、市场一致性、风险折扣和历史校准，不直接等于数据覆盖率。
  • 接近盘会提高平局校准权重，高大小球盘口会提高大比分/高总进球候选权重。
  • 赔率快照数量 0，用于判断市场稳定性。
  • 当前风险等级为low，爆冷风险评估为低。
  • 比分优先看 0-1，其次 0-2。

首席决策初裁：负；比分 0-1 / 0-2；总进球 1 / 2。

系统在预测前已触发本地情报计划和缺口记录；外部源不可用时，使用可验证的比赛基础信息、球队记忆、联赛均值、赔率替代信号和历史校准继续给出结论。

为什么这样预测

展示正向证据、反方风险、情报来源和分身已执行的补充动作，避免空泛结论。

系统当前倾向客队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

正向证据

  • 模型权重｜{ "id": "b580802a-64af-4ecc-a598-02313330fa60", "状态": "active", "weights": { "历史交锋": 0.1, "赔率": 0.32, "近期状态": 0.18, "风险扣分": 0.05, "首发/伤停": 0.15, "分身共识": 0.1, "战意/新闻": 0.1 }, "fallback": "否", "version_name": "phase21_default_v1" }
  • 市场方向｜market_direction=away_win
  • direction_calibration｜{ "reason": "ensemble_market_poisson_draw_kelly", "final_direction": "客胜", "over_under_line": "1.5", "draw_probability": "0.3291074539936937077768071072", "probability_edge": "0.0579152405093812619313046098", "fallback_direction": "平局", "memory_sample_count": 36, "original_market_direction": "客胜" }
  • similar_review_memory｜{ "available": "是", "goal_band": "低", "sample_count": 36, "actual_results": { "平局": 12, "客胜": 14, "主胜": 10 }, "draw_miss_count": 12, "result_hit_rate": 38.89, "high_goal_hit_count": 0, "high_goal_miss_count": 0, "dominant_actual_result": "客胜" }
  • 球队记忆｜{ "客队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 1, "review_count": 1, "result_hit_rate": 0, "points_per_match": 3, "top_failure_reasons": { "no_recommendation_avoided": 1 }, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "主队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 1, "review_count": 0, "result_hit_rate": null, "points_per_match": 0, "top_failure_reasons": {}, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "policy": "只使用数据库已存在的历史赛果、复盘、核验导入证据和公开赛果结构化导入；没有的内容保持缺口，不编造。" }
  • prediction_experience｜{ "items": [ { "id": "c7cc0398-f38b-4aec-85a6-72986f93a897", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a43a5a44-2c08-4f46-88ea-dcd2dfc0c42c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 7, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "odds:德甲:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "德甲 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 77, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "a43a5a44-2c08-4f46-88ea-dcd2dfc0c42c", "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1b7db211-2d17-4782-a247-3fb2c2c14287", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 7, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-08T20:44:44.118525+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "ou:法甲:total:1:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 1，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 77, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "ce1d1972-db1a-4427-bc6d-61978a8c2d94", "example_match_ids": [ "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "4e0f23ca-4464-46e4-8656-4a4eae4057bc", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "8df222f2-97c3-4dbc-8600-26be1720e5c5", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "801abd85-b7ae-47c0-a871-0275ccdba54f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T16:32:46.793272+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "odds:西甲:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-04", "pattern_summary": "西甲 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "cb053094-0b96-41ec-b199-8667fcf7718e", "example_match_ids": [ "8df222f2-97c3-4dbc-8600-26be1720e5c5", "801abd85-b7ae-47c0-a871-0275ccdba54f", "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "b0b817e4-9652-4c3d-a8ba-776957c86cdf", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "asian:德甲:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "da717fd6-065b-465e-a2e7-aae812d21676", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "trap:德甲:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "德乙", "away_team": "埃沃斯堡", "home_team": "杜塞多夫", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }
  • agent_intelligence｜{ "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "2c6d6e79-76a9-49c4-81e6-cc99e81febdb", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0.07, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
  • probability｜{ "客队": 38.7, "平局": 32.91, "主队": 28.39 }
  • 赔率历史｜{ "稳定性评分": 85, "赔率快照数量": 3636 }
  • 数据覆盖｜{ "rule": "coverage_score_is_feature_availability_not_prediction_accuracy", "缺失": [ "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ], "components": { "历史交锋": "否", "news": "是", "赔率": "是", "近期状态": "是", "motivation": "否", "首发/伤停": "否" }, "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "覆盖等级": "中", "覆盖评分": 58, "后续补采动作": [ { "action": "补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。", "缺失": "历史交锋" }, { "action": "补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。", "缺失": "首发/伤停" }, { "action": "补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。", "缺失": "motivation" } ], "experience_context": { "items": [ { "id": "c7cc0398-f38b-4aec-85a6-72986f93a897", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a43a5a44-2c08-4f46-88ea-dcd2dfc0c42c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 7, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "odds:德甲:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "德甲 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 77, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "a43a5a44-2c08-4f46-88ea-dcd2dfc0c42c", "c4ba2fab-0f74-4100-b8c2-6de237d87412", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1b7db211-2d17-4782-a247-3fb2c2c14287", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 7, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-08T20:44:44.118525+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "ou:法甲:total:1:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 1，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 77, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "ce1d1972-db1a-4427-bc6d-61978a8c2d94", "example_match_ids": [ "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 7, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "4e0f23ca-4464-46e4-8656-4a4eae4057bc", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "8df222f2-97c3-4dbc-8600-26be1720e5c5", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "801abd85-b7ae-47c0-a871-0275ccdba54f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T16:32:46.793272+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "odds:西甲:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-04", "pattern_summary": "西甲 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "cb053094-0b96-41ec-b199-8667fcf7718e", "example_match_ids": [ "8df222f2-97c3-4dbc-8600-26be1720e5c5", "801abd85-b7ae-47c0-a871-0275ccdba54f", "e67428f4-7f21-4c16-8a49-85f53c0cdb5c", "f4df8c68-ce13-419e-8466-f668e4fec0ee", "6fdcb68c-0365-4962-8aec-d90b448cf429" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "b0b817e4-9652-4c3d-a8ba-776957c86cdf", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "asian:德甲:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "da717fd6-065b-465e-a2e7-aae812d21676", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 5, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-09T15:43:30.352020+00:00", "league_name": "德甲", "pattern_key": "trap:德甲:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 75, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 82、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "4e5d9fb1-2e49-43b2-bb81-7e2fcd74ed29", "example_match_ids": [ "19e21485-8c5a-4e81-8c81-7628b2dd9737", "551f155f-bd22-4305-ad31-97cfd26a2355", "30081aa1-865a-4577-941c-a3447c02533c", "c6785a00-7670-4568-9998-49fae8ca6fcc" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 5, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "德乙", "away_team": "埃沃斯堡", "home_team": "杜塞多夫", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }, "data_coverage_report": { "比赛 ID": "2c6d6e79-76a9-49c4-81e6-cc99e81febdb", "available": "是", "API 比赛 ID": 1388904, "竞彩编号": "周日006", "generated_at": "2026-05-10T11:14:36.781859+00:00", "stale_fields": [], "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "trigger_reason": "admin_generate_all", "fallback_policy": "API 不足时依次使用 stable feed、本地/浏览器导入、公开情报、球队记忆、历史复盘、经验规律库和联赛风格，不编造缺失事实。", "h2h_coverage_score": 35, "supplement_actions": [ { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "historical_review_memory", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" } ], "form_coverage_score": 45, "is_sporttery_synced": "是", "odds_coverage_score": 100, "teams_coverage_score": 90, "injury_coverage_score": 45, "lineup_coverage_score": 45, "overall_coverage_score": 57, "schedule_coverage_score": 55, "public_collection_policy": "只使用公开可访问来源；不绕过登录、验证码、付费墙，不保存 Cookie 或密钥。", "experience_coverage_score": 45, "motivation_coverage_score": 50, "still_missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_coverage_score": 60 }, "odds_market_coverage": { "欧赔胜平负": "是", "大小球": "是", "亚洲盘口": "是" }, "intelligence_impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "2c6d6e79-76a9-49c4-81e6-cc99e81febdb", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0.07, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
  • 风控策略｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "draw_trap_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险等级": "高", "风险扣分": 0 }

反方风险

  • data_gap｜[ "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ]
  • market_risk｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "draw_trap_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险扣分": 0 }

情报来源

  • 系统缺口审计｜数据缺口补采计划：杜塞多夫 vs 埃沃斯堡｜可信度 100

    首发/伤停缺失：赛前持续补采伤停、首发、阵型、关键球员状态，并在 T-30m 重新刷新。；赔率数据不足：补采欧赔、亚洲盘口、大小球盘口；API 缺失时记录来源缺口并触发公开赔率页面/手工导入计划。；欧赔胜平负缺失：优先补采 1X2 欧赔，用于基础方向和概率归一化。；数据覆盖率偏低：按缺失组件逐项补采；覆盖不足时仍必须给出胜/平/负、两个比分和两个总进球，只在爆冷或异常风险高时才标记不建议投注。；大小球盘口缺失：补采大小球盘口，支撑总进球候选和比分分布。；亚洲盘口缺失：补采亚洲盘口，校验热门方向是否被高估。

  • search_query_plan｜team_memory 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 埃沃斯堡 德乙 2026-05-10 球队记忆 复盘 赔率变化 赛果趋势

  • search_query_plan｜h2h 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 埃沃斯堡 历史交锋 交手记录 赛果 head to head

  • search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃沃斯堡 德乙 近期战绩 近10场 赛果 recent results form

  • search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 德乙 近期战绩 近10场 赛果 recent results form

  • search_query_plan｜news 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 埃沃斯堡 德乙 2026-05-10 新闻 最新

  • search_query_plan｜motivation 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 埃沃斯堡 德乙 2026-05-10 战意 赛程 排名

  • search_query_plan｜injury 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：杜塞多夫 埃沃斯堡 德乙 2026-05-10 伤停 首发 阵容

数据覆盖率

每次预测保存特征快照，数据缺口会记录已执行的补充动作和剩余风险。

覆盖评分

58/100

覆盖等级

中

快照时间

2026-05-10T11:17:07.687886+00:00

历史交锋: 补充中news: 已覆盖赔率: 已覆盖近期状态: 已覆盖motivation: 补充中首发/伤停: 补充中

缺失项：历史交锋、首发/伤停、motivation

  • 补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。
  • 补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。
  • 补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。

球队记忆

把历史赛果、复盘命中/失败原因和核验赛果沉淀为下一轮预测的真实上下文；缺失时说明替代证据，不编造。

本场球队历史记忆不足，需要通过完赛结果、公开赛果导入和复盘样本持续补齐。

主队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中
历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

客队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中
历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

风控与首席裁决

风控优先于推荐，D 池表示不推荐，E 池表示异常监控。

away_winD低风险
最终方向：away_win推荐分：63允许推荐：是是否否决：否

系统当前倾向客队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

  • medium · 基础推荐分低于 60，降为谨慎观察；只有爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换或赛中/完赛等硬风险才直接不建议投注。池位上限：C

最新赔率

仅展示项目后端已入库的赔率快照，不直接访问外部数据源。

公司玩法方向赔率时间
10Bet胜平负主胜3.200005/10 10:09
10Bet胜平负平局3.800005/10 10:09
10Bet胜平负客胜2.000005/10 10:09
10BetHome/Away主胜2.400005/10 10:09
10BetHome/Away客胜1.500005/10 10:09
10BetSecond Half Winner主胜3.200005/10 10:09
10BetSecond Half Winner平局2.750005/10 10:09
10BetSecond Half Winner客胜2.250005/10 10:09
10Bet亚洲盘口Home +02.300005/10 10:09
10Bet亚洲盘口Away +01.570005/10 10:09
10Bet亚洲盘口Home +0.51.770005/10 10:09
10Bet亚洲盘口Away +0.52.000005/10 10:09

胜平负基础概率 / 市场参考

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

主胜

29.1%

赔率 3.2000

平

24.5%

赔率 3.8000

客胜

46.5%

赔率 2.0000

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

赔率走势

按欧赔胜平负、大小球、亚洲盘口分别整理盘口走势，用于交叉验证预测方向。

欧赔胜平负

away_win

公司/盘口：13；覆盖：available

大小球

under

公司/盘口：156；覆盖：available

亚洲盘口

home_handicap

公司/盘口：84；覆盖：available

欧赔胜平负
公司主胜平局客胜异常
10Bet3.20 / 29.0%3.80 / 24.5%2.00 / 46.5%thin_odds_history
1xBet3.20 / 29.3%3.74 / 25.0%2.05 / 45.7%thin_odds_history
888Sport3.10 / 29.4%3.50 / 26.1%2.05 / 44.5%thin_odds_history
Bet3653.30 / 28.4%3.80 / 24.7%2.00 / 46.9%thin_odds_history
BetVictor3.10 / 29.6%3.75 / 24.5%2.00 / 45.9%thin_odds_history
Betano3.30 / 28.9%3.80 / 25.1%2.07 / 46.0%thin_odds_history
Betfair3.00 / 30.8%4.00 / 23.1%2.00 / 46.2%thin_odds_history
Dafabet3.15 / 30.2%3.90 / 24.4%2.10 / 45.4%thin_odds_history
Marathonbet3.20 / 29.1%3.74 / 24.9%2.03 / 45.9%thin_odds_history
Pinnacle3.32 / 29.0%3.89 / 24.7%2.08 / 46.3%thin_odds_history
大小球
公司盘口大球小球异常
10Bet0.51.62 / 57.0%2.15 / 43.0%thin_odds_history
10Bet1.54.00 / 23.1%1.20 / 76.9%thin_odds_history
10Bet2.510.00 / 9.3%1.03 / 90.7%thin_odds_history
10Bet3.52.15 / 43.7%1.67 / 56.3%thin_odds_history
10Bet4.53.65 / 26.0%1.28 / 74.0%thin_odds_history
10Bet5.56.50 / 14.5%1.10 / 85.5%thin_odds_history
1xBet3.51.37 / 66.9%2.77 / 33.1%thin_odds_history
1xBet4.01.50 / 61.0%2.35 / 39.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet4.51.79 / 51.6%1.91 / 48.4%thin_odds_history
1xBet5.02.11 / 43.3%1.61 / 56.7%thin_odds_history
亚洲盘口
公司盘口主队客队异常
10Bet02.30 / 40.6%1.57 / 59.4%thin_odds_history
10Bet0.51.77 / 53.0%2.00 / 46.9%thin_odds_history
1xBet-0.252.88 / 31.9%1.35 / 68.1%thin_odds_history
1xBet-0.754.90 / 18.6%1.12 / 81.4%thin_odds_history
1xBet-12.55 / 36.1%1.44 / 63.9%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.255.85 / 15.5%1.07 / 84.5%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.52.80 / 32.9%1.37 / 67.2%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.758.35 / 10.8%1.01 / 89.2%thin_odds_history
1xBet-210.00 / 9.2%1.01 / 90.8%thin_odds_history
1xBet-2.510.00 / 9.2%1.01 / 90.8%thin_odds_history

暂无 AI 分身分析

暂无 AI 分身分析，请在后台运行分身分析。

预测版本时间线

展示预测版本类型、触发原因、创建时间和推荐分变化。

  1. 版本 7

    RISK_DECISION · admin_decision

    05/10 19:16

    推荐分：63

  2. 版本 6

    ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_all

    05/10 19:14

    推荐分：52

  3. 版本 5

    ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_all

    05/10 19:04

    推荐分：52

  4. 版本 4

    RISK_DECISION · admin_decision

    05/10 10:13

    推荐分：63

  5. 版本 3

    ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display

    05/10 10:10

    推荐分：52

  6. 版本 2

    RISK_DECISION · sporttery_morning_collection

    05/10 09:34

    推荐分：52

  7. 版本 1

    INITIAL · admin_generate_public_display

    05/10 09:29

    推荐分：49

赛后深度复盘

复盘预测方向、比分、总进球、赔率变化、分身正误和下一轮训练样本。

赛果

home_win

比分

3-1

方向命中

否

总进球命中

否

失败/成功归因

  • 不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。

训练建议

  • 保留单独规避统计，继续观察风控效果。
  • Persist odds, handicap, totals and team-data review as searchable prediction experience.