智能体足球比赛预测大师

风险提示

本系统仅提供足球数据分析与风险评估参考，不承诺任何比赛结果。足球比赛具有不确定性，请理性参考。

预测与推荐摘要

推荐分用于表达综合分析强度，不等同于比赛胜率或结果保证。

最终胜平负：胜不建议投注

home_win

推荐分13/100

D高风险不建议推荐

胜平负基础概率

主胜

5333.0%

平

2258.0%

客胜

2409.0%

基础概率，仅供数据参考，不代表结果保证。

两个优先比分

1-0第 1 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

2-0第 2 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

两个优先总进球

大小球判断：偏小

2球第 1 候选

2球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

3球第 2 候选

3球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

最终理由

综合当前可验证资料后，系统选择胜，并已把缺失数据转为补充采集和风险说明。

风险与证据

爆冷风险：中异常/轮换风险：中

available_data_predictionauto_gap_collection_triggered赔率使用替代证据odds_missing_fallback_usedmissing_over_under_oddsmissing_asian_handicap_oddsmarket_probability_baselinepoisson_score_distributionkelly_ev_filteranalysis_only_not_high_confidence_poolmarket_missing_fallbackdata_gap_riskodds_volatility_risksimilar_review_memory_usedhierarchical_pattern_memory_usedprediction_experience_used

主要证据

最终胜平负为胜，不会因局部数据缺口停止预测。
推荐分 13 来自方向清晰度、市场一致性、风险折扣和历史校准，不直接等于数据覆盖率。
接近盘会提高平局校准权重，高大小球盘口会提高大比分/高总进球候选权重。
赔率快照数量 0，用于判断市场稳定性。
当前风险等级为high，爆冷风险评估为中。
比分优先看 1-0，其次 2-0。

首席决策初裁：胜；比分 1-0 / 2-0；总进球 2 / 3。

系统在预测前已触发本地情报计划和缺口记录；外部源不可用时，使用可验证的比赛基础信息、球队记忆、联赛均值、赔率替代信号和历史校准继续给出结论。

为什么这样预测

展示正向证据、反方风险、情报来源和分身已执行的补充动作，避免空泛结论。

1. 最终胜平负选择为“胜”，这是基于当前可验证数据、主客场基础面、赔率/替代证据和历史校准的确定结论。
2. 胜平负赔率状态：当前未取得 1X2 欧赔，系统改用主客场、联赛基准和球队名称/赛程上下文生成结论。
3. 大小球赔率状态：当前未取得大小球盘口，因此比分和总进球只作为辅助判断。
4. 亚洲盘口状态：当前未取得亚洲盘口，强弱让步验证以替代证据补充。
5. 赔率快照数量为 0，走势样本偏少，后台已记录继续补充采集动作。
6. 历史经验支撑：命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。。
7. 推荐分综合方向清晰度、市场一致性、主客场基础面、风险折扣、历史经验和历史校准，不是数据覆盖率，也不是胜率。
反方风险 1：若临场首发、伤停或战意发生变化，当前方向需要重新计算。
反方风险 2：赔率方向接近或盘口剧烈波动时，热门方向可能被高估。
提醒：本场胜平负方向相对更清晰，但大小球、比分和总进球数不确定性较高。

正向证据

模型权重｜{ "id": "b580802a-64af-4ecc-a598-02313330fa60", "状态": "active", "weights": { "历史交锋": 0.1, "赔率": 0.32, "近期状态": 0.18, "风险扣分": 0.05, "首发/伤停": 0.15, "分身共识": 0.1, "战意/新闻": 0.1 }, "fallback": "否", "version_name": "phase21_default_v1" }
市场方向｜market_direction=home_win
direction_calibration｜{ "reason": "ensemble_market_poisson_draw_kelly", "final_direction": "主胜", "over_under_line": null, "draw_probability": "0.2258368313870805403634547584", "probability_edge": "0.2924444296511551130766313834", "fallback_direction": "主胜", "memory_sample_count": 60, "original_market_direction": "主胜" }
similar_review_memory｜{ "available": "是", "goal_band": "中", "sample_count": 60, "actual_results": { "平局": 10, "客胜": 15, "主胜": 35 }, "draw_miss_count": 10, "result_hit_rate": 58.33, "high_goal_hit_count": 0, "high_goal_miss_count": 0, "dominant_actual_result": "主胜" }
prediction_experience｜{ "items": [ { "id": "cd5da993-74f6-499f-a523-e102034c70fd", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4a28db7-536e-41ad-815e-af454fb5259f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 35, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "trap:沙职:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 35, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 100, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "c4a28db7-536e-41ad-815e-af454fb5259f", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 35, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "6e0cb90c-4740-446e-95fb-f4001c6668a4", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1b8bee07-bb18-4ddd-9c05-0c4f07b9767f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 25, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "odds:沙职:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "沙职中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 95, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "1b8bee07-bb18-4ddd-9c05-0c4f07b9767f", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "e3213553-487d-4558-8a02-70c257adceda", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 24, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "asian:沙职:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 94, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "9e6b05c6-d0b4-418b-846e-1f99e9d93e66", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "03b755cd-8c73-47c1-bb2d-8ee2f661b797", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5a6b7e87-54cf-45e4-963c-e1baf8feb2e3", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 24, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 65, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "ou:沙职:total:3:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 3，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 94, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 97、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 97、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "03b755cd-8c73-47c1-bb2d-8ee2f661b797", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "5a6b7e87-54cf-45e4-963c-e1baf8feb2e3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。当前风险分较高，预测时应降低推荐分或触发避开推荐。" }, { "id": "5ad7eccd-695d-4b1b-9339-0a7e5c877b11", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6686405e-d97e-49f3-8a74-a61b3d4aa474", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 22, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "league_favorite:沙职:prediction_hit:hit", "pattern_type": "联赛热门陷阱", "sample_count": 22, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "沙职热门/爆冷风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-12", "pattern_summary": "赛前方向胜、实际胜、失败标签prediction_hit。未来同联赛若低赔热门缺少亚盘支撑、赛程轮换或战意不足，应降低推荐分并优先标记爆冷/异常风险。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 92, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "6686405e-d97e-49f3-8a74-a61b3d4aa474", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "联赛热门陷阱", "sample_count": 22, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别同联赛低赔热门、退盘、轮换或战意不足导致的不胜/爆冷风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "日职", "away_team": "名古屋鲸", "home_team": "大阪樱花", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 1, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }
agent_intelligence｜{ "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 1 条。", "比赛 ID": "7c77e576-254e-48d8-ae56-50b98f6504bf", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0.07, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 1, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": -8, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
probability｜{ "客队": 24.09, "平局": 22.58, "主队": 53.33 }
赔率历史｜{ "稳定性评分": 20, "赔率快照数量": 0 }
数据覆盖｜{ "rule": "coverage_score_is_feature_availability_not_prediction_accuracy", "缺失": [ "赔率", "近期状态", "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ], "components": { "历史交锋": "否", "news": "是", "赔率": "否", "近期状态": "否", "motivation": "否", "首发/伤停": "否" }, "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "覆盖等级": "低", "覆盖评分": 10, "后续补采动作": [ { "action": "补采欧赔/亚盘/大小球赔率快照，若 API 缺失则记录盘口缺口并降级。", "缺失": "赔率" }, { "action": "补齐双方近 5/10 场战绩，优先使用本地历史比赛和授权 API。", "缺失": "近期状态" }, { "action": "补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。", "缺失": "历史交锋" }, { "action": "补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。", "缺失": "首发/伤停" }, { "action": "补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。", "缺失": "motivation" } ], "experience_context": { "items": [ { "id": "cd5da993-74f6-499f-a523-e102034c70fd", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c4a28db7-536e-41ad-815e-af454fb5259f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 35, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "trap:沙职:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 35, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 100, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "c4a28db7-536e-41ad-815e-af454fb5259f", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 35, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "6e0cb90c-4740-446e-95fb-f4001c6668a4", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1b8bee07-bb18-4ddd-9c05-0c4f07b9767f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 25, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "odds:沙职:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "沙职中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 95, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "1b8bee07-bb18-4ddd-9c05-0c4f07b9767f", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "e3213553-487d-4558-8a02-70c257adceda", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 24, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "asian:沙职:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 94, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 100、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 79、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "3adea959-3f47-4c2e-93bb-23a4f6fc881e", "7072b87c-e794-402e-899d-da3f9d09f6b2", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "9e6b05c6-d0b4-418b-846e-1f99e9d93e66", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "03b755cd-8c73-47c1-bb2d-8ee2f661b797", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5a6b7e87-54cf-45e4-963c-e1baf8feb2e3", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 24, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 65, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "ou:沙职:total:3:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-07", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 3，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 94, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 84、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 97、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 97、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "6e98da26-b63b-4e5f-9154-5792c07c1d6b", "03b755cd-8c73-47c1-bb2d-8ee2f661b797", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "5a6b7e87-54cf-45e4-963c-e1baf8feb2e3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 24, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。当前风险分较高，预测时应降低推荐分或触发避开推荐。" }, { "id": "5ad7eccd-695d-4b1b-9339-0a7e5c877b11", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6686405e-d97e-49f3-8a74-a61b3d4aa474", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 22, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T21:10:06.785547+00:00", "league_name": "沙职", "pattern_key": "league_favorite:沙职:prediction_hit:hit", "pattern_type": "联赛热门陷阱", "sample_count": 22, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "沙职热门/爆冷风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-12", "pattern_summary": "赛前方向胜、实际胜、失败标签prediction_hit。未来同联赛若低赔热门缺少亚盘支撑、赛程轮换或战意不足，应降低推荐分并优先标记爆冷/异常风险。", "source_match_id": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 92, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 38、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "606f04f0-d648-4a7a-94b8-70d45d2cdcd1", "example_match_ids": [ "53e35681-a4dd-4260-b33a-0b69a0626cda", "db19d8fc-d399-43bc-8bd6-21738c8cd44d", "984982f7-e3da-4613-8678-e22b1b2c0d95", "f9074d08-4274-4804-b090-8358ae2bde44", "de4dc814-559f-4e03-b3df-451984b95c7f", "6686405e-d97e-49f3-8a74-a61b3d4aa474", "842b5695-26ae-491b-81cf-0a95e1b4e6a3", "045754fa-0d1e-4e8f-8e01-a1370314b70c", "c185515d-52d2-4b1c-bd21-0a33bbbf908e", "7c0edc4d-4008-4b31-9242-45498ac13b3a", "59f621c1-f1f9-45b2-87d0-08ff85ff336f" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "沙职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "联赛热门陷阱", "sample_count": 22, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别同联赛低赔热门、退盘、轮换或战意不足导致的不胜/爆冷风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "日职", "away_team": "名古屋鲸", "home_team": "大阪樱花", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 1, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }, "data_coverage_report": { "比赛 ID": "7c77e576-254e-48d8-ae56-50b98f6504bf", "available": "是", "API 比赛 ID": -1908730049, "竞彩编号": "周日001", "generated_at": "2026-05-17T05:07:21.258990+00:00", "stale_fields": [], "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "trigger_reason": "admin_generate_all", "fallback_policy": "API 不足时依次使用 stable feed、本地/浏览器导入、公开情报、球队记忆、历史复盘、经验规律库和联赛风格，不编造缺失事实。", "h2h_coverage_score": 35, "supplement_actions": [ { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "1x2_odds", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "over_under_odds", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "亚洲盘口", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "team_identity", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "league_identity", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "historical_review_memory", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" } ], "form_coverage_score": 45, "is_sporttery_synced": "是", "odds_coverage_score": 30, "teams_coverage_score": 55, "injury_coverage_score": 45, "lineup_coverage_score": 45, "overall_coverage_score": 46.5, "schedule_coverage_score": 55, "public_collection_policy": "只使用公开可访问来源；不绕过登录、验证码、付费墙，不保存 Cookie 或密钥。", "experience_coverage_score": 45, "motivation_coverage_score": 50, "still_missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_coverage_score": 60 }, "odds_market_coverage": { "欧赔胜平负": "否", "大小球": "否", "亚洲盘口": "否" }, "intelligence_impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 1 条。", "比赛 ID": "7c77e576-254e-48d8-ae56-50b98f6504bf", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0.07, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 1, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": -8, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
风控策略｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "赔率使用替代证据", "odds_missing_fallback_used", "missing_over_under_odds", "missing_asian_handicap_odds", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "market_missing_fallback", "data_gap_risk", "odds_volatility_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险等级": "高", "风险扣分": 23 }

反方风险

data_gap｜[ "赔率", "近期状态", "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ]
market_risk｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "赔率使用替代证据", "odds_missing_fallback_used", "missing_over_under_odds", "missing_asian_handicap_odds", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "market_missing_fallback", "data_gap_risk", "odds_volatility_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险扣分": 23 }
fallback｜赔率未完整覆盖时继续给出胜平负结论，但比分/总进球仅作辅助参考。

情报来源

系统缺口审计｜数据缺口补采计划：大阪樱花 vs 名古屋鲸｜可信度 100
首发/伤停缺失：赛前持续补采伤停、首发、阵型、关键球员状态，并在 T-30m 重新刷新。；赔率数据不足：补采欧赔、亚洲盘口、大小球盘口；API 缺失时记录来源缺口并触发公开赔率页面/手工导入计划。；欧赔胜平负缺失：优先补采 1X2 欧赔，用于基础方向和概率归一化。；数据覆盖率偏低：按缺失组件逐项补采；覆盖不足时仍必须给出胜/平/负、两个比分和两个总进球，只在爆冷或异常风险高时才标记不建议投注。；大小球盘口缺失：补采大小球盘口，支撑总进球候选和比分分布。；亚洲盘口缺失：补采亚洲盘口，校验热门方向是否被高估。
api-football-local-pipeline｜lottery-only公开源fallback说明｜可信度 82
周日001为体彩stable feed同步比赛，API fixture暂未匹配到正向ID；已保留比赛展示和初步预测，并以联赛经验库、体彩公开基础信息、赔率缺口降级机制继续分析。
search_query_plan｜team_memory 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：大阪樱花名古屋鲸日职 2026-05-17 球队记忆复盘赔率变化赛果趋势
search_query_plan｜h2h 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：大阪樱花名古屋鲸历史交锋交手记录赛果 head to head
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：名古屋鲸日职近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：大阪樱花日职近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜news 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：大阪樱花名古屋鲸日职 2026-05-17 新闻最新
search_query_plan｜motivation 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：大阪樱花名古屋鲸日职 2026-05-17 战意赛程排名

数据覆盖率

每次预测保存特征快照，数据缺口会记录已执行的补充动作和剩余风险。

覆盖评分

10/100

覆盖等级

低

快照时间

2026-05-17T05:07:47.497289+00:00

历史交锋: 补充中news: 已覆盖赔率: 补充中近期状态: 补充中motivation: 补充中首发/伤停: 补充中

缺失项：赔率、近期状态、历史交锋、首发/伤停、motivation

补采欧赔/亚盘/大小球赔率快照，若 API 缺失则记录盘口缺口并降级。
补齐双方近 5/10 场战绩，优先使用本地历史比赛和授权 API。
补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。
补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。
补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。

球队记忆

把历史赛果、复盘命中/失败原因和核验赛果沉淀为下一轮预测的真实上下文；缺失时说明替代证据，不编造。

本场球队历史记忆不足，需要通过完赛结果、公开赛果导入和复盘样本持续补齐。

主队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

客队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

风控与首席裁决

风控优先于推荐，D 池表示不推荐，E 池表示异常监控。

home_winD高风险

最终方向：home_win推荐分：13允许推荐：是是否否决：否

1. 最终胜平负选择为“胜”，这是基于当前可验证数据、主客场基础面、赔率/替代证据和历史校准的确定结论。 2. 胜平负赔率状态：当前未取得 1X2 欧赔，系统改用主客场、联赛基准和球队名称/赛程上下文生成结论。 3. 大小球赔率状态：当前未取得大小球盘口，因此比分和总进球只作为辅助判断。 4. 亚洲盘口状态：当前未取得亚洲盘口，强弱让步验证以替代证据补充。 5. 赔率快照数量为 0，走势样本偏少，后台已记录继续补充采集动作。 6. 历史经验支撑：命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。。 7. 推荐分综合方向清晰度、市场一致性、主客场基础面、风险折扣、历史经验和历史校准，不是数据覆盖率，也不是胜率。反方风险 1：若临场首发、伤停或战意发生变化，当前方向需要重新计算。反方风险 2：赔率方向接近或盘口剧烈波动时，热门方向可能被高估。提醒：本场胜平负方向相对更清晰，但大小球、比分和总进球数不确定性较高。

medium · 基础推荐分低于 60，降为谨慎观察；只有爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换或赛中/完赛等硬风险才直接不建议投注。池位上限：C
medium · 缺少赔率快照，市场验证不足；触发补采并降为谨慎推荐，不再仅因缺赔率直接不建议投注。池位上限：C
medium · 数据完整度低于 50，需要降低推荐强度。池位上限：C
medium · 赔率一致性偏低，市场信号不够稳定。

赔率走势

按欧赔胜平负、大小球、亚洲盘口分别整理盘口走势，用于交叉验证预测方向。

暂无赔率走势

暂未形成完整赔率/盘口走势；预测会自动降级并记录补采动作。

多 AI 分身摘要

这里只展示分身结论、信心分、风险分和数据缺失提示，不展示过多内部 JSON。

数据质量分身

分析 H2H、交锋风格、历史进球分布和数据覆盖可信度。

数据暂缺

数据基本可用。

信心分：75风险分：35倾向：continue_analysis

更新时间：05/17 09:49

反方审查分身

专门判断热门过热、赔率诱导、战意不稳和弱队爆冷条件。

数据暂缺

存在需要复核的反方意见。

信心分：65风险分：75倾向：downgrade_suggested

更新时间：05/17 09:49

新闻可信度分身

分析资料库新闻、公开情报、来源可信度和突发信息。

已有公开新闻/赛前资讯可作为辅助证据。

信心分：65风险分：38倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 09:49

裁判环境分身

分析裁判、天气、场地、异常盘口、放水或极端轮换风险。

数据暂缺

暂无裁判姓名和裁判历史统计。

信心分：25风险分：58倾向：neutral

更新时间：05/17 09:49

战意赛程分身

分析争冠保级、杯赛欧战、赛程密度、体能和战意。

已有战意/赛程线索，可作为辅助判断。

信心分：58风险分：46倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 09:49

赔率市场分身

分析欧赔、亚盘、大小球、赔率变化和盘口一致性。

数据暂缺

赔率快照仍在补充，市场方向先按球队实力、状态和风险折扣辅助判断。

信心分：20风险分：82倾向：wait_for_odds

更新时间：05/17 09:49

首发阵容分身

分析伤停、停赛、首发、预计轮换和阵容稳定性。

已有阵容或赛前名单情报，可供后续阵容稳定性检查。

信心分：66风险分：38倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 09:49

球员情报分身

分析近况、状态趋势、核心球员表现和球队波动。

已有伤停/球员情报记录，可作为后续风控输入。

信心分：64风险分：44倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 09:49

战术教练分身

分析双方进攻防守风格、节奏、压迫和进球形态。

数据暂缺

从基础模型角度看，当前方向为主队方向，但缺少战术层面的硬数据。

信心分：45风险分：60倾向：conservative_reference

更新时间：05/17 09:49

量化模型分身

分析球队整体实力、基础概率、主客差异和模型方向。

基础模型倾向：主队方向。

信心分：66风险分：65倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 09:49

首席裁决分身

首席裁决 AI

数据暂缺

首席裁决已生成当前最终结论。

信心分：50风险分：50倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 07:55

risk_control_agent

风控官 AI

数据暂缺

风控规则限制推荐池，需要降低展示强度。

信心分：75风险分：71倾向：downgrade

更新时间：05/17 07:55

预测版本时间线

展示预测版本类型、触发原因、创建时间和推荐分变化。

版本 14
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_all
05/17 13:07
推荐分：55
版本 13
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_all
05/17 13:01
推荐分：55
版本 12
RISK_DECISION · admin_decision
05/17 07:55
推荐分：50
版本 11
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 07:53
推荐分：55
版本 10
RISK_DECISION · admin_decision
05/17 07:32
推荐分：50
版本 9
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 07:30
推荐分：55
版本 8
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 03:53
推荐分：50
版本 7
ODDS_UPDATE · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 03:52
推荐分：55
版本 6
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_final_experience_pass
05/17 02:47
推荐分：50
版本 5
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_post_experience
05/17 02:44
推荐分：50
版本 4
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:33
推荐分：55
版本 3
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_full_batch
05/17 02:17
推荐分：50
版本 2
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:05
推荐分：55
版本 1
INITIAL · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 01:54
推荐分：52

赛后深度复盘

复盘预测方向、比分、总进球、赔率变化、分身正误和下一轮训练样本。

暂无复盘记录

比赛完场后自动生成；若未生成，可在后台执行 Phase 21 深度复盘任务。

比赛详情

大阪樱花对名古屋鲸

预测与推荐摘要

胜平负基础概率

两个优先比分

两个优先总进球

最终理由

风险与证据

主要证据

为什么这样预测

正向证据

反方风险

情报来源

数据覆盖率

球队记忆

风控与首席裁决

暂无赔率

暂无基础概率

赔率走势

暂无赔率走势

多 AI 分身摘要

数据质量分身

反方审查分身

新闻可信度分身

裁判环境分身

战意赛程分身

赔率市场分身

首发阵容分身

球员情报分身

战术教练分身

量化模型分身

首席裁决分身

risk_control_agent

预测版本时间线

赛后深度复盘

暂无复盘记录

比赛详情

大阪樱花 对 名古屋鲸

预测与推荐摘要

胜平负基础概率

两个优先比分

两个优先总进球

最终理由

风险与证据

主要证据

为什么这样预测

正向证据

反方风险

情报来源

数据覆盖率

球队记忆

风控与首席裁决

暂无赔率

暂无基础概率

赔率走势

暂无赔率走势

多 AI 分身摘要

数据质量分身

反方审查分身

新闻可信度分身

裁判环境分身

战意赛程分身

赔率市场分身

首发阵容分身

球员情报分身

战术教练分身

量化模型分身

首席裁决分身

risk_control_agent

预测版本时间线

赛后深度复盘

暂无复盘记录

大阪樱花对名古屋鲸