智能体足球比赛预测大师

风险提示

本系统仅提供足球数据分析与风险评估参考，不承诺任何比赛结果。足球比赛具有不确定性，请理性参考。

预测与推荐摘要

推荐分用于表达综合分析强度，不等同于比赛胜率或结果保证。

最终胜平负：胜不建议投注

home_win

推荐分13/100

D高风险不建议推荐

胜平负基础概率

主胜

3491.0%

平

3378.0%

客胜

3131.0%

基础概率，仅供数据参考，不代表结果保证。

两个优先比分

2-1第 1 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏大的进球倾向作为优先候选。

3-1第 2 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏大的进球倾向作为优先候选。

两个优先总进球

大小球判断：偏大

3球第 1 候选

3球与当前偏大的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

4球第 2 候选

4球与当前偏大的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

最终理由

综合当前可验证资料后，系统选择胜，并已把缺失数据转为补充采集和风险说明。

风险与证据

爆冷风险：中异常/轮换风险：中

analysis_only_not_high_confidence_poolauto_gap_collection_triggeredavailable_data_predictiondata_gap_riskdraw_detector_usedhierarchical_pattern_memory_usedkelly_ev_filterlow_data_completenesslow_model_confidencelow_odds_consistencylow_prediction_scoremarket_missing_fallbackmarket_probability_baselinemissing_asian_handicap_odds赔率使用替代证据missing_over_under_oddsodds_missing_fallback_usedodds_volatility_riskpoisson_score_distributionprediction_experience_usedsimilar_review_memory_usedsoft_data_gap_cautious_floorquant_value_gate_cautiouspattern_recommendation_gate_cautious

主要证据

最终胜平负为胜，不会因局部数据缺口停止预测。
推荐分 13 来自方向清晰度、市场一致性、风险折扣和历史校准，不直接等于数据覆盖率。
接近盘会提高平局校准权重，高大小球盘口会提高大比分/高总进球候选权重。
赔率快照数量 0，用于判断市场稳定性。
当前风险等级为high，爆冷风险评估为中。
比分优先看 2-1，其次 3-1。

首席决策初裁：胜；比分 2-1 / 3-1；总进球 3 / 4。

系统在预测前已触发本地情报计划和缺口记录；外部源不可用时，使用可验证的比赛基础信息、球队记忆、联赛均值、赔率替代信号和历史校准继续给出结论。

为什么这样预测

展示正向证据、反方风险、情报来源和分身已执行的补充动作，避免空泛结论。

系统当前倾向主队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

正向证据

模型权重｜{ "id": "b580802a-64af-4ecc-a598-02313330fa60", "状态": "active", "weights": { "历史交锋": 0.1, "赔率": 0.32, "近期状态": 0.18, "风险扣分": 0.05, "首发/伤停": 0.15, "分身共识": 0.1, "战意/新闻": 0.1 }, "fallback": "否", "version_name": "phase21_default_v1" }
市场方向｜market_direction=draw
direction_calibration｜{ "reason": "ensemble_market_poisson_draw_kelly", "final_direction": "主胜", "over_under_line": null, "draw_probability": "0.3377885807894112771436645798", "probability_edge": "0.0113523105686727178504369977", "fallback_direction": "平局", "memory_sample_count": 5, "original_market_direction": "平局" }
similar_review_memory｜{ "available": "是", "goal_band": "中", "sample_count": 5, "actual_results": { "平局": 1, "客胜": 2, "主胜": 2 }, "draw_miss_count": 0, "result_hit_rate": 20, "high_goal_hit_count": 0, "high_goal_miss_count": 0, "dominant_actual_result": "客胜" }
prediction_experience｜{ "items": [ { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "169eb5d6-2dfb-48d6-862d-1db278f7fbb4", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "odds:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "aa15435b-14c2-42d9-910b-311f3fad521a", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "asian:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "bf870459-b0b2-4a50-bf11-1cd44b694d45", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "trap:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1df1d185-2aa9-4483-9e58-5ca86c2a89bc", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 63.5, "draw_rate": 28.6, "over25_rate": 58.2, "away_win_rate": 25.9, "home_win_rate": 45.5, "favorite_hit_rate": 33.3, "low_odds_trap_rate": 100, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 0 }, "league": "德乙", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388893, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388902, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388725, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388722, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388724, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388729, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-0", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388730, "总进球": 0, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-2", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388723, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388728, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388726, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388727, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388735, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 5041 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 2498 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 2023 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 1874 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under First Half", "value": 1279 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 1124 }, { "label": "Asian Handicap First Half", "value": 984 }, { "label": "Total - Home", "value": 932 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 79, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 9, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 9 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 8772 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 7223 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 5540 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 4266 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 2418 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 2182 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 2108 }, { "label": "Betfair", "value": 1679 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 24 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 21 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 14 }, { "label": "2-2", "value": 13 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 12 }, { "label": "0-0", "value": 11 }, { "label": "3-1", "value": 10 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 34 }, { "label": "2", "value": 45 }, { "label": "3", "value": 46 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 64 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 38110, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 86 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 54 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 49 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 189, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 0, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 6, "hit_rate": 50 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 9 } ], "hit_rate": 58.2, "hit_count": 110, "miss_count": 79, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T19:50:56.116343+00:00", "league_name": "德乙", "pattern_key": "20260517_visual_79_goal_scoreline_visual", "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 189, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill", "pattern_title": "德乙???????????", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "德乙??189??2.5???58.2%?????63.5%??????1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-2??????????????????????1-0/2-0?", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 63.5, "draw_rate": 28.6, "over25_rate": 58.2, "away_win_rate": 25.9, "home_win_rate": 45.5, "favorite_hit_rate": 33.3, "low_odds_trap_rate": 100, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 0 }, "league": "德乙", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388893, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388902, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388725, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388722, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388724, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388729, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-0", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388730, "总进球": 0, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-2", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388723, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388728, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388726, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388727, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388735, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 5041 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 2498 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 2023 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 1874 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under First Half", "value": 1279 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 1124 }, { "label": "Asian Handicap First Half", "value": 984 }, { "label": "Total - Home", "value": 932 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 79, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 9, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 9 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 8772 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 7223 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 5540 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 4266 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 2418 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 2182 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 2108 }, { "label": "Betfair", "value": 1679 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 24 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 21 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 14 }, { "label": "2-2", "value": 13 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 12 }, { "label": "0-0", "value": 11 }, { "label": "3-1", "value": 10 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 34 }, { "label": "2", "value": 45 }, { "label": "3", "value": 46 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 64 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 38110, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 86 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 54 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 49 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 189, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 0, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 6, "hit_rate": 50 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 9 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德乙", "hit_rate": 58.2, "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 189, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "德乙", "away_team": "帕德博恩", "home_team": "达姆施塔", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }
agent_intelligence｜{ "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "a568c516-ce6c-48cb-aed4-d2b25d6442ef", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0.07, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
probability｜{ "客队": 31.31, "平局": 33.78, "主队": 34.91 }
赔率历史｜{ "稳定性评分": 20, "赔率快照数量": 0 }
数据覆盖｜{ "rule": "coverage_score_is_feature_availability_not_prediction_accuracy", "缺失": [ "赔率", "近期状态", "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ], "components": { "历史交锋": "否", "news": "是", "赔率": "否", "近期状态": "否", "motivation": "否", "首发/伤停": "否" }, "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "覆盖等级": "低", "覆盖评分": 10, "后续补采动作": [ { "action": "补采欧赔/亚盘/大小球赔率快照，若 API 缺失则记录盘口缺口并降级。", "缺失": "赔率" }, { "action": "补齐双方近 5/10 场战绩，优先使用本地历史比赛和授权 API。", "缺失": "近期状态" }, { "action": "补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。", "缺失": "历史交锋" }, { "action": "补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。", "缺失": "首发/伤停" }, { "action": "补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。", "缺失": "motivation" } ], "experience_context": { "items": [ { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "169eb5d6-2dfb-48d6-862d-1db278f7fbb4", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "odds:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "aa15435b-14c2-42d9-910b-311f3fad521a", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 40, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "asian:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:三市场:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "亚洲盘口退让与热门风险经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "结合让球、退盘、推荐方向 home_win 和失败标签 prediction_hit 复盘，未来相似盘口需重点检查热门方是否被高估、是否存在退盘或赔付分歧。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "亚洲盘口", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验亚盘升降、退盘和水位变化是否支持当前胜平负方向。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "bf870459-b0b2-4a50-bf11-1cd44b694d45", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 17, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T10:55:41.571869+00:00", "league_name": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "pattern_key": "trap:日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 87, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "aece01c2-fc1b-4514-89d6-5446389489f3", "example_match_ids": [ "65401c54-9540-478a-bb74-2e0e230796e1", "ea0d9417-1bd5-453b-93e8-9db32a68b208", "1ec6e9fb-7d98-4894-9cd5-064b252c3850", "b2dd76bd-0e4f-4afe-9fc8-15f267e7e0b7", "c7b8c9ee-b430-4c75-85b7-2d41fe70302d", "a50ac545-b4e0-437a-8a35-7d765fa1c0eb", "bf864bcc-b9b9-4f56-9ac8-d72f4ca27e18" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日本杰杰勒阿古埃联赛", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 17, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1df1d185-2aa9-4483-9e58-5ca86c2a89bc", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 63.5, "draw_rate": 28.6, "over25_rate": 58.2, "away_win_rate": 25.9, "home_win_rate": 45.5, "favorite_hit_rate": 33.3, "low_odds_trap_rate": 100, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 0 }, "league": "德乙", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388893, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388902, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388725, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388722, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388724, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388729, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-0", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388730, "总进球": 0, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-2", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388723, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388728, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388726, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388727, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388735, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 5041 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 2498 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 2023 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 1874 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under First Half", "value": 1279 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 1124 }, { "label": "Asian Handicap First Half", "value": 984 }, { "label": "Total - Home", "value": 932 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 79, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 9, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 9 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 8772 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 7223 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 5540 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 4266 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 2418 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 2182 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 2108 }, { "label": "Betfair", "value": 1679 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 24 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 21 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 14 }, { "label": "2-2", "value": 13 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 12 }, { "label": "0-0", "value": 11 }, { "label": "3-1", "value": 10 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 34 }, { "label": "2", "value": 45 }, { "label": "3", "value": 46 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 64 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 38110, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 86 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 54 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 49 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 189, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 0, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 6, "hit_rate": 50 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 9 } ], "hit_rate": 58.2, "hit_count": 110, "miss_count": 79, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T19:50:56.116343+00:00", "league_name": "德乙", "pattern_key": "20260517_visual_79_goal_scoreline_visual", "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 189, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill", "pattern_title": "德乙???????????", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "德乙??189??2.5???58.2%?????63.5%??????1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-2??????????????????????1-0/2-0?", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 63.5, "draw_rate": 28.6, "over25_rate": 58.2, "away_win_rate": 25.9, "home_win_rate": 45.5, "favorite_hit_rate": 33.3, "low_odds_trap_rate": 100, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 0 }, "league": "德乙", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388893, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388902, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388725, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "1-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388722, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388724, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388729, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-0", "result": "平局", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388730, "总进球": 0, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-2", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388723, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388728, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "4-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388726, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388727, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1388735, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": null } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 5041 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 2498 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 2023 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 1874 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under First Half", "value": 1279 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 1124 }, { "label": "Asian Handicap First Half", "value": 984 }, { "label": "Total - Home", "value": 932 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 79, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 9, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 9 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 8772 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 7223 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 5540 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 4266 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 2418 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 2182 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 2108 }, { "label": "Betfair", "value": 1679 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 24 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 21 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 14 }, { "label": "2-2", "value": 13 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 12 }, { "label": "0-0", "value": 11 }, { "label": "3-1", "value": 10 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 34 }, { "label": "2", "value": 45 }, { "label": "3", "value": 46 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 64 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 38110, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 86 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 54 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 49 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 189, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 0, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 6, "hit_rate": 50 }, { "命中": 0, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 0 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 9 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "德乙", "hit_rate": 58.2, "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 189, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" } ], "query": { "league": "德乙", "away_team": "帕德博恩", "home_team": "达姆施塔", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }, "data_coverage_report": { "比赛 ID": "a568c516-ce6c-48cb-aed4-d2b25d6442ef", "available": "是", "API 比赛 ID": -1169374928, "竞彩编号": "周日013", "generated_at": "2026-05-16T19:59:11.875086+00:00", "stale_fields": [], "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity" ] }, "risk_score": 34, "main_evidence": [ "达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩", "overall_coverage=46.5" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 46.5, "counter_evidence": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "trigger_reason": "manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild", "fallback_policy": "API 不足时依次使用 stable feed、本地/浏览器导入、公开情报、球队记忆、历史复盘、经验规律库和联赛风格，不编造缺失事实。", "h2h_coverage_score": 35, "supplement_actions": [ { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "1x2_odds", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "over_under_odds", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "亚洲盘口", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "team_identity", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "league_identity", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" }, { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "historical_review_memory", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" } ], "form_coverage_score": 45, "is_sporttery_synced": "是", "odds_coverage_score": 30, "teams_coverage_score": 55, "injury_coverage_score": 45, "lineup_coverage_score": 45, "overall_coverage_score": 46.5, "schedule_coverage_score": 55, "public_collection_policy": "只使用公开可访问来源；不绕过登录、验证码、付费墙，不保存 Cookie 或密钥。", "experience_coverage_score": 45, "motivation_coverage_score": 50, "still_missing_but_handled": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_coverage_score": 60 }, "odds_market_coverage": { "欧赔胜平负": "否", "大小球": "否", "亚洲盘口": "否" }, "intelligence_impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "a568c516-ce6c-48cb-aed4-d2b25d6442ef", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0.07, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "1x2_odds", "over_under_odds", "亚洲盘口", "team_identity", "league_identity", "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
风控策略｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "赔率使用替代证据", "odds_missing_fallback_used", "missing_over_under_odds", "missing_asian_handicap_odds", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "market_missing_fallback", "data_gap_risk", "odds_volatility_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险等级": "高", "风险扣分": 23 }

反方风险

data_gap｜[ "赔率", "近期状态", "历史交锋", "首发/伤停", "motivation" ]
market_risk｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "赔率使用替代证据", "odds_missing_fallback_used", "missing_over_under_odds", "missing_asian_handicap_odds", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "market_missing_fallback", "data_gap_risk", "odds_volatility_risk", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险扣分": 23 }
fallback｜赔率未完整覆盖时继续给出胜平负结论，但比分/总进球仅作辅助参考。

情报来源

系统缺口审计｜数据缺口补采计划：达姆施塔 vs 帕德博恩｜可信度 100
首发/伤停缺失：赛前持续补采伤停、首发、阵型、关键球员状态，并在 T-30m 重新刷新。；赔率数据不足：补采欧赔、亚洲盘口、大小球盘口；API 缺失时记录来源缺口并触发公开赔率页面/手工导入计划。；欧赔胜平负缺失：优先补采 1X2 欧赔，用于基础方向和概率归一化。；数据覆盖率偏低：按缺失组件逐项补采；覆盖不足时仍必须给出胜/平/负、两个比分和两个总进球，只在爆冷或异常风险高时才标记不建议投注。；大小球盘口缺失：补采大小球盘口，支撑总进球候选和比分分布。；亚洲盘口缺失：补采亚洲盘口，校验热门方向是否被高估。
api-football-local-pipeline｜lottery-only公开源fallback说明｜可信度 82
周日013为体彩stable feed同步比赛，API fixture暂未匹配到正向ID；已保留比赛展示和初步预测，并以联赛经验库、体彩公开基础信息、赔率缺口降级机制继续分析。
search_query_plan｜team_memory 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：达姆施塔帕德博恩德乙 2026-05-17 球队记忆复盘赔率变化赛果趋势
search_query_plan｜h2h 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：达姆施塔帕德博恩历史交锋交手记录赛果 head to head
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：帕德博恩德乙近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：达姆施塔德乙近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜news 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：达姆施塔帕德博恩德乙 2026-05-17 新闻最新
search_query_plan｜motivation 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：达姆施塔帕德博恩德乙 2026-05-17 战意赛程排名

数据覆盖率

每次预测保存特征快照，数据缺口会记录已执行的补充动作和剩余风险。

覆盖评分

10/100

覆盖等级

低

快照时间

2026-05-16T19:59:30.924714+00:00

历史交锋: 补充中news: 已覆盖赔率: 补充中近期状态: 补充中motivation: 补充中首发/伤停: 补充中

缺失项：赔率、近期状态、历史交锋、首发/伤停、motivation

补采欧赔/亚盘/大小球赔率快照，若 API 缺失则记录盘口缺口并降级。
补齐双方近 5/10 场战绩，优先使用本地历史比赛和授权 API。
补齐历史交锋，若无交锋则明确记录样本不足。
补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。
补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。

球队记忆

把历史赛果、复盘命中/失败原因和核验赛果沉淀为下一轮预测的真实上下文；缺失时说明替代证据，不编造。

本场球队历史记忆不足，需要通过完赛结果、公开赛果导入和复盘样本持续补齐。

主队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

客队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

风控与首席裁决

风控优先于推荐，D 池表示不推荐，E 池表示异常监控。

home_winD高风险

最终方向：home_win推荐分：13允许推荐：是是否否决：否

系统当前倾向主队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

medium · 基础推荐分低于 60，降为谨慎观察；只有爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换或赛中/完赛等硬风险才直接不建议投注。池位上限：C
medium · 缺少赔率快照，市场验证不足；触发补采并降为谨慎推荐，不再仅因缺赔率直接不建议投注。池位上限：C
medium · 数据完整度低于 50，需要降低推荐强度。池位上限：C
medium · 赔率一致性偏低，市场信号不够稳定。
medium · 基础模型信心分偏低。

赔率走势

按欧赔胜平负、大小球、亚洲盘口分别整理盘口走势，用于交叉验证预测方向。

暂无赔率走势

暂未形成完整赔率/盘口走势；预测会自动降级并记录补采动作。

多 AI 分身摘要

这里只展示分身结论、信心分、风险分和数据缺失提示，不展示过多内部 JSON。

首席裁决分身

首席裁决 AI

数据暂缺

首席裁决已生成当前最终结论。

信心分：50风险分：50倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 03:59

risk_control_agent

风控官 AI

数据暂缺

风控规则限制推荐池，需要降低展示强度。

信心分：75风险分：86倾向：downgrade

更新时间：05/17 03:59

战意赛程分身

分析争冠保级、杯赛欧战、赛程密度、体能和战意。

已有战意/赛程线索，可作为辅助判断。

信心分：58风险分：46倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:49

赔率市场分身

分析欧赔、亚盘、大小球、赔率变化和盘口一致性。

数据暂缺

赔率快照仍在补充，市场方向先按球队实力、状态和风险折扣辅助判断。

信心分：20风险分：82倾向：wait_for_odds

更新时间：05/17 02:49

反方审查分身

专门判断热门过热、赔率诱导、战意不稳和弱队爆冷条件。

数据暂缺

存在需要复核的反方意见。

信心分：65风险分：85倾向：downgrade_suggested

更新时间：05/17 02:49

量化模型分身

分析球队整体实力、基础概率、主客差异和模型方向。

基础模型倾向：主队方向。

信心分：46风险分：65倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 02:49

首发阵容分身

分析伤停、停赛、首发、预计轮换和阵容稳定性。

已有阵容或赛前名单情报，可供后续阵容稳定性检查。

信心分：66风险分：38倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:49

球员情报分身

分析近况、状态趋势、核心球员表现和球队波动。

已有伤停/球员情报记录，可作为后续风控输入。

信心分：64风险分：44倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:49

数据质量分身

分析 H2H、交锋风格、历史进球分布和数据覆盖可信度。

数据暂缺

数据基本可用。

信心分：75风险分：35倾向：continue_analysis

更新时间：05/17 02:49

新闻可信度分身

分析资料库新闻、公开情报、来源可信度和突发信息。

已有公开新闻/赛前资讯可作为辅助证据。

信心分：65风险分：38倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:49

裁判环境分身

分析裁判、天气、场地、异常盘口、放水或极端轮换风险。

数据暂缺

暂无裁判姓名和裁判历史统计。

信心分：25风险分：58倾向：neutral

更新时间：05/17 02:49

战术教练分身

分析双方进攻防守风格、节奏、压迫和进球形态。

数据暂缺

从基础模型角度看，当前方向为主队方向，但缺少战术层面的硬数据。

信心分：45风险分：60倾向：conservative_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:49

预测版本时间线

展示预测版本类型、触发原因、创建时间和推荐分变化。

版本 7
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 03:59
推荐分：50
版本 6
ODDS_UPDATE · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 03:59
推荐分：49
版本 5
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_final_experience_pass
05/17 02:49
推荐分：50
版本 4
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_post_experience
05/17 02:46
推荐分：50
版本 3
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:37
推荐分：49
版本 2
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_full_batch
05/17 02:19
推荐分：50
版本 1
INITIAL · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:09
推荐分：49

赛后深度复盘

复盘预测方向、比分、总进球、赔率变化、分身正误和下一轮训练样本。

暂无复盘记录

比赛完场后自动生成；若未生成，可在后台执行 Phase 21 深度复盘任务。

比赛详情

达姆施塔对帕德博恩

预测与推荐摘要

胜平负基础概率

两个优先比分

两个优先总进球

最终理由

风险与证据

主要证据

为什么这样预测

正向证据

反方风险

情报来源

数据覆盖率

球队记忆

风控与首席裁决

暂无赔率

暂无基础概率

赔率走势

暂无赔率走势

多 AI 分身摘要

首席裁决分身

risk_control_agent

战意赛程分身

赔率市场分身

反方审查分身

量化模型分身

首发阵容分身

球员情报分身

数据质量分身

新闻可信度分身

裁判环境分身

战术教练分身

预测版本时间线

赛后深度复盘

暂无复盘记录

比赛详情

达姆施塔 对 帕德博恩

预测与推荐摘要

胜平负基础概率

两个优先比分

两个优先总进球

最终理由

风险与证据

主要证据

为什么这样预测

正向证据

反方风险

情报来源

数据覆盖率

球队记忆

风控与首席裁决

暂无赔率

暂无基础概率

赔率走势

暂无赔率走势

多 AI 分身摘要

首席裁决分身

risk_control_agent

战意赛程分身

赔率市场分身

反方审查分身

量化模型分身

首发阵容分身

球员情报分身

数据质量分身

新闻可信度分身

裁判环境分身

战术教练分身

预测版本时间线

赛后深度复盘

暂无复盘记录

达姆施塔对帕德博恩