比赛详情

单场比赛的预测、赔率、AI 分身、风控和裁决摘要。

后台补采/证据计划返回今日比赛

风险提示

本系统仅提供足球数据分析与风险评估参考，不承诺任何比赛结果。足球比赛具有不确定性，请理性参考。

周日031法甲·05/18 03:00未开始

里尔对欧塞尔

比分：比分待定

场馆：资料待补充

城市：资料待补充

裁判：资料待补充

预测与推荐摘要

推荐分用于表达综合分析强度，不等同于比赛胜率或结果保证。

最终胜平负：胜谨慎推荐

home_win

推荐分56/100

A低风险当日相对强推荐

胜平负基础概率

主胜

5740.0%

平

2743.0%

客胜

1517.0%

基础概率，仅供数据参考，不代表结果保证。

两个优先比分

1-0第 1 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

2-0第 2 候选

该比分与胜方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

两个优先总进球

大小球判断：偏小

1球第 1 候选

1球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

2球第 2 候选

2球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

最终理由

综合当前可验证资料后，系统选择胜，并已把缺失数据转为补充采集和风险说明。

风险与证据

爆冷风险：低异常/轮换风险：低

analysis_only_not_high_confidence_poolauto_gap_collection_triggeredavailable_data_predictiondraw_detector_usedhierarchical_pattern_memory_usedkelly_ev_filterlow_prediction_scoremarket_probability_baselinepoisson_score_distributionprediction_experience_usedsimilar_review_memory_usedquant_value_gate_cautiouspattern_recommendation_gate_supported

主要证据

最终胜平负为胜，不会因局部数据缺口停止预测。
推荐分 56 来自方向清晰度、市场一致性、风险折扣和历史校准，不直接等于数据覆盖率。
接近盘会提高平局校准权重，高大小球盘口会提高大比分/高总进球候选权重。
赔率快照数量 0，用于判断市场稳定性。
当前风险等级为low，爆冷风险评估为低。
比分优先看 1-0，其次 2-0。

首席决策初裁：胜；比分 1-0 / 2-0；总进球 1 / 2。

系统在预测前已触发本地情报计划和缺口记录；外部源不可用时，使用可验证的比赛基础信息、球队记忆、联赛均值、赔率替代信号和历史校准继续给出结论。

为什么这样预测

展示正向证据、反方风险、情报来源和分身已执行的补充动作，避免空泛结论。

系统当前倾向主队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

正向证据

模型权重｜{ "id": "b580802a-64af-4ecc-a598-02313330fa60", "状态": "active", "weights": { "历史交锋": 0.1, "赔率": 0.32, "近期状态": 0.18, "风险扣分": 0.05, "首发/伤停": 0.15, "分身共识": 0.1, "战意/新闻": 0.1 }, "fallback": "否", "version_name": "phase21_default_v1" }
市场方向｜market_direction=home_win
direction_calibration｜{ "reason": "ensemble_market_poisson_draw_kelly", "final_direction": "主胜", "over_under_line": "0.5", "draw_probability": "0.2742897267359701696690127568", "probability_edge": "0.2997501020315035784182383955", "fallback_direction": "平局", "memory_sample_count": 60, "original_market_direction": "主胜" }
similar_review_memory｜{ "available": "是", "goal_band": "低", "sample_count": 60, "actual_results": { "平局": 17, "客胜": 17, "主胜": 26 }, "draw_miss_count": 17, "result_hit_rate": 43.33, "high_goal_hit_count": 0, "high_goal_miss_count": 0, "dominant_actual_result": "主胜" }
球队记忆｜{ "客队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 12, "review_count": 2, "result_hit_rate": 0.5, "points_per_match": 1.42, "top_failure_reasons": { "数据仍在补充": 1, "模型判断偏差": 1, "underestimated_upset": 1, "市场信号不清晰": 1, "no_failure_prediction_hit": 1 }, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "主队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 12, "review_count": 2, "result_hit_rate": 0.5, "points_per_match": 2.33, "top_failure_reasons": { "伤停信息缺失": 1, "首发信息缺失": 1, "模型判断偏差": 1, "overrated_favorite": 1, "underestimated_draw": 1, "underestimated_upset": 1, "市场信号不清晰": 1, "no_failure_prediction_hit": 1 }, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "policy": "只使用数据库已存在的历史赛果、复盘、核验导入证据和公开赛果结构化导入；没有的内容保持缺口，不编造。" }
prediction_experience｜{ "items": [ { "id": "85a7254c-0ff4-4d26-a089-88ad2cad581e", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ce0e7388-f20a-458d-aa55-803f3a0afb8f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3ec261c9-448b-4d27-a4ea-a3f23e08d984", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "2a9f81d7-b540-4831-84cf-06e158d0ed7d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fd2cbba2-40e5-4236-98f2-4e4b59bc534c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 25, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 95, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "ce0e7388-f20a-458d-aa55-803f3a0afb8f", "3ec261c9-448b-4d27-a4ea-a3f23e08d984", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "2a9f81d7-b540-4831-84cf-06e158d0ed7d", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "fd2cbba2-40e5-4236-98f2-4e4b59bc534c", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "c254ce88-0dd6-4672-8c7c-489626371238", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 20, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "odds:法甲:单市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 20, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "法甲中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖单市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 90, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 20, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1667274a-6432-42e4-a1a6-cf644e630a79", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 45, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "league_draw:法甲:单市场:non_draw:hit", "pattern_type": "联赛平局规律", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "法甲平局识别经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-12", "pattern_summary": "法甲本场实际结果为胜。若同联赛出现浅盘、平局赔率下压、大小球低盘或双方状态接近，应提高平局权重；若实时球队情报明显支持一方，也需记录经验冲突而不是盲从。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "联赛平局规律", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于同联赛平局识别，尤其是浅盘、低总进球、状态接近和保守战意场景。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1b7db211-2d17-4782-a247-3fb2c2c14287", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 65, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:00:11.846372+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "ou:法甲:total:1:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 1，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "a6cc1bd8-00a4-4bd4-b5d5-82d3dcf469a4", "example_match_ids": [ "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。当前风险分较高，预测时应降低推荐分或触发避开推荐。" } ], "query": { "league": "法甲", "away_team": "欧塞尔", "home_team": "里尔", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 1, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }
agent_intelligence｜{ "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 1 条。", "比赛 ID": "a715f542-244d-4b45-a40d-6f4f8f8b8cc0", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 1, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": -8, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
probability｜{ "客队": 15.17, "平局": 27.43, "主队": 57.4 }
赔率历史｜{ "稳定性评分": 85, "赔率快照数量": 4933 }
数据覆盖｜{ "rule": "coverage_score_is_feature_availability_not_prediction_accuracy", "缺失": [ "首发/伤停", "motivation" ], "components": { "历史交锋": "是", "news": "是", "赔率": "是", "近期状态": "是", "motivation": "否", "首发/伤停": "否" }, "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "覆盖等级": "中", "覆盖评分": 70, "后续补采动作": [ { "action": "补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。", "缺失": "首发/伤停" }, { "action": "补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。", "缺失": "motivation" } ], "experience_context": { "items": [ { "id": "85a7254c-0ff4-4d26-a089-88ad2cad581e", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ce0e7388-f20a-458d-aa55-803f3a0afb8f", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "3ec261c9-448b-4d27-a4ea-a3f23e08d984", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "2a9f81d7-b540-4831-84cf-06e158d0ed7d", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fd2cbba2-40e5-4236-98f2-4e4b59bc534c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 25, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:home_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 home_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 95, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "ce0e7388-f20a-458d-aa55-803f3a0afb8f", "3ec261c9-448b-4d27-a4ea-a3f23e08d984", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "2a9f81d7-b540-4831-84cf-06e158d0ed7d", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "fd2cbba2-40e5-4236-98f2-4e4b59bc534c", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 25, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "c254ce88-0dd6-4672-8c7c-489626371238", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 20, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "odds:法甲:单市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 20, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "法甲中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖单市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 90, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 56、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "42465890-c5de-44fe-8a88-26a5b9aa98d8", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 20, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1667274a-6432-42e4-a1a6-cf644e630a79", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 45, "更新时间": "2026-05-15T14:56:18.331994+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "league_draw:法甲:单市场:non_draw:hit", "pattern_type": "联赛平局规律", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "法甲平局识别经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-12", "pattern_summary": "法甲本场实际结果为胜。若同联赛出现浅盘、平局赔率下压、大小球低盘或双方状态接近，应提高平局权重；若实时球队情报明显支持一方，也需记录经验冲突而不是盲从。", "source_match_id": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_recommendation_avoided", "message": "不推荐或监控场次，按规避样本记录。", "standard_code": "风险避开样本", "detailed_analysis": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" } ], "失败原因": "该场作为规避或监控样本记录，后续用于验证爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换等风控是否有效，不混入普通推荐命中统计。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 50、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "51e80fd5-9f5b-4579-988b-219ef5d6fb46", "example_match_ids": [ "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "66cb635e-d7b3-448e-b919-a4afd6b87973", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "a068e3dc-b6e1-4a50-8a46-f261ff27def7", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "26ecf375-7045-4d52-a286-c798fe849e01", "5f46a415-f47a-42ec-a1a6-4b88c88a1ed9", "bd0d4193-44c1-4d87-bbeb-477e3baec2f6" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "联赛平局规律", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于同联赛平局识别，尤其是浅盘、低总进球、状态接近和保守战意场景。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "1b7db211-2d17-4782-a247-3fb2c2c14287", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 65, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:00:11.846372+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "ou:法甲:total:1:hit", "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered", "pattern_title": "大小球与总进球复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-05", "pattern_summary": "实际总进球 1，用于校准大小球盘口和比分分布，避免长期只给小比分或机械化总进球。", "source_match_id": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 66、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "a6cc1bd8-00a4-4bd4-b5d5-82d3dcf469a4", "example_match_ids": [ "7b3c150b-53dd-472a-a328-6e1fadcf732b", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "f2d5c2df-d98d-4c9c-a49e-226cf03a8f0b", "27b2cc87-f959-4bc8-baeb-a9b3588e3635", "5826b2c3-bf8c-414a-8617-cbdd05d94e8e", "7eb0bf2e-d49a-4ed5-a59b-ca029f940b0c", "26043c8c-f68d-4cb5-b51c-4900c6dd1efc", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "6e3c410d-763f-4b06-b0e4-11557e7f01aa", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "49c0accb-dcaa-4814-9e2a-0c5d4abe0b00" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "大小球", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "all_covered" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校准大小球判断、比分分布和总进球候选，避免机械化小比分。当前风险分较高，预测时应降低推荐分或触发避开推荐。" } ], "query": { "league": "法甲", "away_team": "欧塞尔", "home_team": "里尔", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 1, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }, "data_coverage_report": { "比赛 ID": "a715f542-244d-4b45-a40d-6f4f8f8b8cc0", "available": "是", "API 比赛 ID": 1387996, "竞彩编号": "周日031", "generated_at": "2026-05-16T20:08:27.668488+00:00", "stale_fields": [], "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "里尔 vs 欧塞尔", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "trigger_reason": "manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild", "fallback_policy": "API 不足时依次使用 stable feed、本地/浏览器导入、公开情报、球队记忆、历史复盘、经验规律库和联赛风格，不编造缺失事实。", "h2h_coverage_score": 35, "supplement_actions": [ { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "historical_review_memory", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" } ], "form_coverage_score": 45, "is_sporttery_synced": "是", "odds_coverage_score": 100, "teams_coverage_score": 90, "injury_coverage_score": 45, "lineup_coverage_score": 45, "overall_coverage_score": 57, "schedule_coverage_score": 55, "public_collection_policy": "只使用公开可访问来源；不绕过登录、验证码、付费墙，不保存 Cookie 或密钥。", "experience_coverage_score": 45, "motivation_coverage_score": 50, "still_missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_coverage_score": 60 }, "odds_market_coverage": { "欧赔胜平负": "是", "大小球": "是", "亚洲盘口": "是" }, "intelligence_impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 1 条。", "比赛 ID": "a715f542-244d-4b45-a40d-6f4f8f8b8cc0", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 1, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": -8, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
风控策略｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险等级": "高", "风险扣分": 0 }

反方风险

data_gap｜[ "首发/伤停", "motivation" ]
market_risk｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险扣分": 0 }

情报来源

系统缺口审计｜数据缺口补采计划：里尔 vs 欧塞尔｜可信度 100
首发/伤停缺失：赛前持续补采伤停、首发、阵型、关键球员状态，并在 T-30m 重新刷新。；数据覆盖率偏低：按缺失组件逐项补采；覆盖不足时仍必须给出胜/平/负、两个比分和两个总进球，只在爆冷或异常风险高时才标记不建议投注。；战意赛程信息缺失：补采积分排名、晋级/保级/争冠动机、赛程密度和轮换压力。
api-football-local-pipeline｜法甲积分排名与战意线索｜可信度 82
主队排名3、积分61、近况WDWDW；客队排名15、积分31、近况WWLDD。该信息用于判断争冠、欧战、保级或排名压力，不单独构成推荐。
search_query_plan｜team_memory 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：里尔欧塞尔法甲 2026-05-17 球队记忆复盘赔率变化赛果趋势
search_query_plan｜h2h 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：里尔欧塞尔历史交锋交手记录赛果 head to head
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：欧塞尔法甲近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：里尔法甲近期战绩近10场赛果 recent results form
search_query_plan｜news 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：里尔欧塞尔法甲 2026-05-17 新闻最新
search_query_plan｜motivation 补采计划｜可信度 60
补充查询：里尔欧塞尔法甲 2026-05-17 战意赛程排名

数据覆盖率

每次预测保存特征快照，数据缺口会记录已执行的补充动作和剩余风险。

覆盖评分

70/100

覆盖等级

中

快照时间

2026-05-16T20:08:46.480906+00:00

历史交锋: 已覆盖news: 已覆盖赔率: 已覆盖近期状态: 已覆盖motivation: 补充中首发/伤停: 补充中

缺失项：首发/伤停、motivation

补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。
补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。

球队记忆

把历史赛果、复盘命中/失败原因和核验赛果沉淀为下一轮预测的真实上下文；缺失时说明替代证据，不编造。

本场球队历史记忆不足，需要通过完赛结果、公开赛果导入和复盘样本持续补齐。

主队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

客队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中

历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

风控与首席裁决

风控优先于推荐，D 池表示不推荐，E 池表示异常监控。

home_winA低风险

最终方向：home_win推荐分：56允许推荐：是是否否决：否

系统当前倾向主队方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

medium · 基础推荐分低于 60，降为谨慎观察；只有爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换或赛中/完赛等硬风险才直接不建议投注。池位上限：C

公司	玩法	方向	赔率	时间
10Bet	胜平负	主胜	1.3600	05/17 02:02
10Bet	胜平负	平局	4.6500	05/17 02:02
10Bet	胜平负	客胜	8.4000	05/17 02:02
10Bet	Home/Away	主胜	1.0900	05/17 02:02
10Bet	Home/Away	客胜	6.0000	05/17 02:02
10Bet	Second Half Winner	主胜	1.6200	05/17 02:02
10Bet	Second Half Winner	平局	2.8500	05/17 02:02
10Bet	Second Half Winner	客胜	6.5000	05/17 02:02
10Bet	亚洲盘口	Home -1	1.5500	05/17 02:02
10Bet	亚洲盘口	Away -1	2.3500	05/17 02:02
10Bet	亚洲盘口	Home -1.5	2.0500	05/17 02:02
10Bet	亚洲盘口	Away -1.5	1.7300	05/17 02:02

胜平负基础概率 / 市场参考

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

主胜

68.8%

赔率 1.3600

平

20.1%

赔率 4.6500

客胜

11.1%

赔率 8.4000

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

赔率走势

按欧赔胜平负、大小球、亚洲盘口分别整理盘口走势，用于交叉验证预测方向。

欧赔胜平负

home_win

公司/盘口：13；覆盖：available

大小球

under

公司/盘口：157；覆盖：available

亚洲盘口

away_handicap

公司/盘口：107；覆盖：available

欧赔胜平负

公司	主胜	平局	客胜	异常
10Bet	1.36 / 68.8%	4.65 / 20.1%	8.40 / 11.1%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	3.40 / 26.3%	3.50 / 25.6%	1.86 / 48.1%	thin_odds_history
888Sport	1.36 / 67.7%	4.60 / 20.0%	7.50 / 12.3%	thin_odds_history
Bet365	1.36 / 69.6%	4.75 / 19.9%	9.00 / 10.5%	thin_odds_history
BetVictor	1.33 / 68.7%	4.60 / 19.9%	8.00 / 11.4%	thin_odds_history
Betano	1.39 / 68.5%	4.85 / 19.6%	8.00 / 11.9%	thin_odds_history
Betfair	1.36 / 70.3%	5.00 / 19.1%	9.00 / 10.6%	thin_odds_history
Dafabet	1.39 / 69.4%	5.20 / 18.6%	8.00 / 12.1%	thin_odds_history
Marathonbet	1.39 / 69.7%	5.05 / 19.2%	8.70 / 11.1%	thin_odds_history
Pinnacle	1.36 / 69.6%	4.99 / 19.0%	8.25 / 11.5%	thin_odds_history

大小球

公司	盘口	大球	小球	异常
10Bet	3.5	2.80 / 33.7%	1.42 / 66.3%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	0.5	1.55 / 61.3%	2.45 / 38.8%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	4.5	5.00 / 19.0%	1.17 / 81.0%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	1.5	2.55 / 36.3%	1.45 / 63.7%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	2.5	5.75 / 16.1%	1.10 / 83.9%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	6.5	2.00 / 44.4%	1.60 / 55.6%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	2.0	2.87 / 31.8%	1.34 / 68.2%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	2.5	1.62 / 56.8%	2.13 / 43.2%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	3.0	1.21 / 76.4%	3.92 / 23.6%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	3.5	2.55 / 35.9%	1.43 / 64.1%	thin_odds_history

亚洲盘口

公司	盘口	主队	客队	异常
10Bet	-1	1.55 / 60.3%	2.35 / 39.7%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	-1.5	2.05 / 45.8%	1.73 / 54.2%	thin_odds_history
10Bet	-0.5	1.90 / 49.3%	1.85 / 50.7%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-0.25	1.48 / 61.8%	2.39 / 38.2%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-0.75	2.21 / 41.8%	1.59 / 58.2%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-1	1.72 / 53.8%	2.00 / 46.2%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-1.25	3.82 / 24.2%	1.22 / 75.8%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-1.5	6.80 / 13.4%	1.05 / 86.6%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-1.75	6.29 / 14.6%	1.08 / 85.4%	thin_odds_history
1xBet	-2	2.30 / 40.0%	1.53 / 60.1%	thin_odds_history

多 AI 分身摘要

这里只展示分身结论、信心分、风险分和数据缺失提示，不展示过多内部 JSON。

首席裁决分身

首席裁决 AI

首席裁决已生成当前最终结论。

信心分：63风险分：25倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 04:08

risk_control_agent

风控官 AI

风控规则限制推荐池，需要降低展示强度。

信心分：75风险分：18倾向：downgrade

更新时间：05/17 04:08

战意赛程分身

分析争冠保级、杯赛欧战、赛程密度、体能和战意。

已有战意/赛程线索，可作为辅助判断。

信心分：58风险分：46倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:53

赔率市场分身

分析欧赔、亚盘、大小球、赔率变化和盘口一致性。

赔率方向可用于参考。

信心分：66风险分：34倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 02:53

反方审查分身

专门判断热门过热、赔率诱导、战意不稳和弱队爆冷条件。

数据暂缺

存在需要复核的反方意见。

信心分：65风险分：65倾向：downgrade_suggested

更新时间：05/17 02:53

量化模型分身

分析球队整体实力、基础概率、主客差异和模型方向。

基础模型倾向：主队方向。

信心分：66风险分：65倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 02:53

首发阵容分身

分析伤停、停赛、首发、预计轮换和阵容稳定性。

已有阵容或赛前名单情报，可供后续阵容稳定性检查。

信心分：66风险分：38倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:53

球员情报分身

分析近况、状态趋势、核心球员表现和球队波动。

已有伤停/球员情报记录，可作为后续风控输入。

信心分：64风险分：44倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:53

数据质量分身

分析 H2H、交锋风格、历史进球分布和数据覆盖可信度。

数据暂缺

数据基本可用。

信心分：100风险分：0倾向：continue_analysis

更新时间：05/17 02:53

新闻可信度分身

分析资料库新闻、公开情报、来源可信度和突发信息。

已有公开新闻/赛前资讯可作为辅助证据。

信心分：65风险分：38倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:53

裁判环境分身

分析裁判、天气、场地、异常盘口、放水或极端轮换风险。

数据暂缺

已有裁判姓名，但暂无裁判历史统计。

信心分：35风险分：58倾向：neutral

更新时间：05/17 02:53

战术教练分身

分析双方进攻防守风格、节奏、压迫和进球形态。

从基础模型角度看，当前方向为主队方向，但缺少战术层面的硬数据。

信心分：62风险分：42倾向：conservative_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:53

预测版本时间线

展示预测版本类型、触发原因、创建时间和推荐分变化。

版本 7
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 04:08
推荐分：63
版本 6
ODDS_UPDATE · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild
05/17 04:08
推荐分：52
版本 5
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_final_experience_pass
05/17 02:53
推荐分：69
版本 4
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_post_experience
05/17 02:50
推荐分：66
版本 3
ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:42
推荐分：55
版本 2
RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_full_batch
05/17 02:22
推荐分：50
版本 1
INITIAL · admin_generate_public_display
05/17 02:15
推荐分：55

赛后深度复盘

复盘预测方向、比分、总进球、赔率变化、分身正误和下一轮训练样本。

暂无复盘记录

比赛完场后自动生成；若未生成，可在后台执行 Phase 21 深度复盘任务。

比赛详情

里尔 对 欧塞尔

预测与推荐摘要

胜平负基础概率

两个优先比分

两个优先总进球

最终理由

风险与证据

主要证据

为什么这样预测

正向证据

反方风险

情报来源

数据覆盖率

球队记忆

风控与首席裁决

最新赔率

胜平负基础概率 / 市场参考

赔率走势

多 AI 分身摘要

首席裁决分身

risk_control_agent

战意赛程分身

赔率市场分身

反方审查分身

量化模型分身

首发阵容分身

球员情报分身

数据质量分身

新闻可信度分身

裁判环境分身

战术教练分身

预测版本时间线

赛后深度复盘

暂无复盘记录

里尔对欧塞尔