智能体足球比赛预测大师多 AI 分身足球数据分析与风险评估系统

比赛详情

单场比赛的预测、赔率、AI 分身、风控和裁决摘要。

后台补采/证据计划返回今日比赛
风险提示

本系统仅提供足球数据分析与风险评估参考，不承诺任何比赛结果。足球比赛具有不确定性，请理性参考。

周日025西甲·05/18 01:00未开始

埃尔切 对 赫塔费

比分：比分待定
场馆：资料待补充
城市：资料待补充
裁判：资料待补充

预测与推荐摘要

推荐分用于表达综合分析强度，不等同于比赛胜率或结果保证。

最终胜平负：平不建议投注

draw
推荐分32/100
D低风险不建议推荐

胜平负基础概率

主胜
3697.0%
平
3736.0%
客胜
2567.0%

基础概率，仅供数据参考，不代表结果保证。

两个优先比分

0-0第 1 候选

该比分与平方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

1-1第 2 候选

该比分与平方向一致，并结合当前偏小的进球倾向作为优先候选。

两个优先总进球

大小球判断：偏小

1球第 1 候选

1球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

2球第 2 候选

2球与当前偏小的总进球判断相匹配，作为主要进球数候选。

最终理由

综合当前可验证资料后，系统选择平，并已把缺失数据转为补充采集和风险说明。

风险与证据

爆冷风险：中异常/轮换风险：低
analysis_only_not_high_confidence_poolauto_gap_collection_triggeredavailable_data_predictiondraw_detector_usedhierarchical_pattern_memory_usedkelly_ev_filterlow_model_confidencelow_prediction_scoremarket_probability_baselinepoisson_score_distributionprediction_experience_usedsimilar_review_memory_usedquant_value_gate_cautiouspattern_recommendation_gate_cautious

主要证据

  • 最终胜平负为平，不会因局部数据缺口停止预测。
  • 推荐分 32 来自方向清晰度、市场一致性、风险折扣和历史校准，不直接等于数据覆盖率。
  • 接近盘会提高平局校准权重，高大小球盘口会提高大比分/高总进球候选权重。
  • 赔率快照数量 0，用于判断市场稳定性。
  • 当前风险等级为low，爆冷风险评估为中。
  • 比分优先看 0-0，其次 1-1。

首席决策初裁：平；比分 0-0 / 1-1；总进球 1 / 2。

系统在预测前已触发本地情报计划和缺口记录；外部源不可用时，使用可验证的比赛基础信息、球队记忆、联赛均值、赔率替代信号和历史校准继续给出结论。

为什么这样预测

展示正向证据、反方风险、情报来源和分身已执行的补充动作，避免空泛结论。

系统当前倾向平局方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

正向证据

  • 模型权重｜{ "id": "b580802a-64af-4ecc-a598-02313330fa60", "状态": "active", "weights": { "历史交锋": 0.1, "赔率": 0.32, "近期状态": 0.18, "风险扣分": 0.05, "首发/伤停": 0.15, "分身共识": 0.1, "战意/新闻": 0.1 }, "fallback": "否", "version_name": "phase21_default_v1" }
  • 市场方向｜market_direction=home_win
  • direction_calibration｜{ "reason": "ensemble_market_poisson_draw_kelly", "final_direction": "平局", "over_under_line": "0.5", "draw_probability": "0.3736400765151322074315072933", "probability_edge": "0.0039762640734767902865731199", "fallback_direction": "平局", "memory_sample_count": 60, "original_market_direction": "主胜" }
  • similar_review_memory｜{ "available": "是", "goal_band": "低", "sample_count": 60, "actual_results": { "平局": 17, "客胜": 17, "主胜": 26 }, "draw_miss_count": 17, "result_hit_rate": 43.33, "high_goal_hit_count": 0, "high_goal_miss_count": 0, "dominant_actual_result": "主胜" }
  • 球队记忆｜{ "客队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 12, "review_count": 3, "result_hit_rate": 0.3333, "points_per_match": 1.58, "top_failure_reasons": { "伤停信息缺失": 1, "首发信息缺失": 1, "模型判断偏差": 1, "overrated_favorite": 1, "underestimated_upset": 1, "市场信号不清晰": 1, "no_failure_prediction_hit": 1, "no_recommendation_avoided": 1 }, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "主队": { "available": "是", "match_count": 12, "review_count": 3, "result_hit_rate": 0.6667, "points_per_match": 1.17, "top_failure_reasons": { "no_failure_prediction_hit": 1, "no_recommendation_avoided": 2 }, "verified_result_evidence_count": 0 }, "policy": "只使用数据库已存在的历史赛果、复盘、核验导入证据和公开赛果结构化导入；没有的内容保持缺口，不编造。" }
  • prediction_experience｜{ "items": [ { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "70f70673-35e8-43a8-a54f-3cf0e7783317", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "favorite_hit_rate": 48.1, "low_odds_trap_rate": 0, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 30 }, "league": "西甲", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391150, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": 1.56 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1391154, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391152, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.742 }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391157, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.748 }, { "比分": "5-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391158, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 1.706 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391160, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 2.122 }, { "比分": "2-2", "result": "平局", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391166, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 2.557 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391159, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 1.713 }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391178, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": 2.07 }, { "比分": "3-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391151, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 1.758 }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391165, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 2.435 }, { "比分": "2-4", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391149, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 2.597 } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 21558 }, { "label": "Player Singles", "value": 11814 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 10144 }, { "label": "Player Fouls Committed", "value": 10014 }, { "label": "Player Triples", "value": 8870 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 8605 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 8078 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 7066 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 140, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 27, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 17, "under_favored": 10 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 101364 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 38982 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 36870 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 17569 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 12974 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 11221 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 9552 }, { "label": "Pinnacle", "value": 8021 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 35 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 27 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 23 }, { "label": "0-1", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 17 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "0-2", "value": 15 }, { "label": "3-0", "value": 12 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 50 }, { "label": "2", "value": 67 }, { "label": "3", "value": 60 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 63 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 257994, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 116 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 59 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 65 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 240, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 1, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 2, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 4, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 9, "hit_rate": 44.4 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 11, "hit_rate": 27.3 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 4, "hit_rate": 75 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 27 } ], "hit_rate": 51.2, "hit_count": 123, "miss_count": 117, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T19:50:58.567165+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_visual_140_goal_scoreline_visual", "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲???????????", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲??240??2.5???51.2%?????57.5%??????1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2??????????????????????1-0/2-0?", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "favorite_hit_rate": 48.1, "low_odds_trap_rate": 0, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 30 }, "league": "西甲", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391150, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": 1.56 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1391154, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391152, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.742 }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391157, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.748 }, { "比分": "5-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391158, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 1.706 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391160, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 2.122 }, { "比分": "2-2", "result": "平局", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391166, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 2.557 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391159, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 1.713 }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391178, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": 2.07 }, { "比分": "3-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391151, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 1.758 }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391165, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 2.435 }, { "比分": "2-4", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391149, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 2.597 } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 21558 }, { "label": "Player Singles", "value": 11814 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 10144 }, { "label": "Player Fouls Committed", "value": 10014 }, { "label": "Player Triples", "value": 8870 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 8605 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 8078 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 7066 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 140, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 27, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 17, "under_favored": 10 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 101364 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 38982 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 36870 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 17569 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 12974 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 11221 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 9552 }, { "label": "Pinnacle", "value": 8021 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 35 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 27 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 23 }, { "label": "0-1", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 17 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "0-2", "value": 15 }, { "label": "3-0", "value": 12 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 50 }, { "label": "2", "value": 67 }, { "label": "3", "value": 60 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 63 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 257994, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 116 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 59 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 65 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 240, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 1, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 2, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 4, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 9, "hit_rate": 44.4 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 11, "hit_rate": 27.3 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 4, "hit_rate": 75 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 27 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 51.2, "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" }, { "id": "16839129-c797-48cd-8347-5d829913a696", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "hit_rate": 51.2, "hit_count": 123, "miss_count": 117, "risk_score": 12, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T18:30:00.798482+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_hist_140_goal_market", "pattern_type": "league_goal_market_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲近半年进球/大小球经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲近半年均球2.73，2.5球以上占比51.2%，双方进球占比57.5%，1球及以下占比20.8%，当前标记为进球分布均衡。比分预测不得机械集中1-0/2-0，应按该联赛进球底盘和双方近期攻防重新分配0-0、1-1、2-1、2-2、3-1、3-2等候选。", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [ "1390947", "1390939", "1390940", "1390945", "1390948", "1390946", "1390941", "1390944" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 51.2, "pattern_type": "league_goal_market_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" }, { "id": "3c67b501-926b-479c-ba58-f316d94e79bb", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "199ce691-c688-4f22-ab92-551d65c66618", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f14bc9fb-fbf0-40c9-9dc2-b7d07d0ef435", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "98096317-1854-456d-bbaa-58600d34906e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "877ffc59-013b-4ce7-86c7-5e246929c0ae", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ada62ec3-0e63-40cd-b23f-608d7ef8085b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 16, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T11:59:25.304116+00:00", "league_name": "日职", "pattern_key": "odds:日职:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 16, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "日职 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 98、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 98、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "38efb0e5-d908-4eca-9796-36052ec3502d", "example_match_ids": [ "199ce691-c688-4f22-ab92-551d65c66618", "f14bc9fb-fbf0-40c9-9dc2-b7d07d0ef435", "98096317-1854-456d-bbaa-58600d34906e", "877ffc59-013b-4ce7-86c7-5e246929c0ae", "ada62ec3-0e63-40cd-b23f-608d7ef8085b", "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 16, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "a3e04617-3a71-4d17-aebc-2ecb6dc07c87", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "hit_rate": 48.3, "hit_count": 116, "miss_count": 124, "risk_score": 15, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T18:30:00.798482+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_hist_140_result_distribution", "pattern_type": "league_result_distribution", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲近半年赛果结构经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲近半年已采集240场、完赛240场：主胜48.3%、平局24.6%、客胜27.1%。预测时先用该联赛赛果底盘校准胜平负，若当前赔率方向与联赛底盘冲突，需要降低推荐分池并要求更多盘口/战意证据。", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 85, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [ "1390947", "1390939", "1390940", "1390945", "1390948", "1390946", "1390941", "1390944" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 48.3, "pattern_type": "league_result_distribution", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" } ], "query": { "league": "西甲", "away_team": "赫塔费", "home_team": "埃尔切", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }
  • agent_intelligence｜{ "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "e7b6b3d3-814e-40aa-8ebe-6fd017e52396", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
  • probability｜{ "客队": 25.67, "平局": 37.36, "主队": 36.97 }
  • 赔率历史｜{ "稳定性评分": 85, "赔率快照数量": 5254 }
  • 数据覆盖｜{ "rule": "coverage_score_is_feature_availability_not_prediction_accuracy", "缺失": [ "首发/伤停", "motivation" ], "components": { "历史交锋": "是", "news": "是", "赔率": "是", "近期状态": "是", "motivation": "否", "首发/伤停": "否" }, "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "覆盖等级": "中", "覆盖评分": 70, "后续补采动作": [ { "action": "补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。", "缺失": "首发/伤停" }, { "action": "补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。", "缺失": "motivation" } ], "experience_context": { "items": [ { "id": "0996ec61-098b-4ccb-bc66-f98180cf9cd5", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 19, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T20:57:49.351942+00:00", "league_name": "法甲", "pattern_key": "trap:法甲:away_win:prediction_hit", "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-08", "pattern_summary": "实际结果 away_win失败原因 prediction_hit。预测前必须复查平局低估、热门陷阱、赔率反向、赛程轮换和战意风险。", "source_match_id": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 89, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 away_win 与实际 away_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 52、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "实际赛果": "客胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019", "实际赛果": "客胜" } ], "source_review_id": "fa560803-9dfc-4516-b333-d8f10279a346", "example_match_ids": [ "932335d0-6282-4046-8aa7-31534b55bf20", "b40785a1-e31a-4a2c-8829-f561bf539c88", "5d20e936-bd43-424f-b689-c23137613286", "c59587ec-1650-4084-a9c3-af2745f96142", "af01d32e-2c26-4ae8-9ea8-7758bb2c283e", "fbdb305b-ee42-42b4-a4d5-cd86b848da00", "6497e04b-2542-4059-a8db-eb8cf0b11c42", "f5cd647e-ab6b-42b3-803a-897f9d630019" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "法甲", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "热门陷阱", "sample_count": 19, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于识别热门过热、亚盘不支持和赛程轮换导致的不胜风险。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "70f70673-35e8-43a8-a54f-3cf0e7783317", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "favorite_hit_rate": 48.1, "low_odds_trap_rate": 0, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 30 }, "league": "西甲", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391150, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": 1.56 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1391154, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391152, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.742 }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391157, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.748 }, { "比分": "5-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391158, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 1.706 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391160, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 2.122 }, { "比分": "2-2", "result": "平局", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391166, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 2.557 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391159, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 1.713 }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391178, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": 2.07 }, { "比分": "3-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391151, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 1.758 }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391165, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 2.435 }, { "比分": "2-4", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391149, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 2.597 } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 21558 }, { "label": "Player Singles", "value": 11814 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 10144 }, { "label": "Player Fouls Committed", "value": 10014 }, { "label": "Player Triples", "value": 8870 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 8605 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 8078 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 7066 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 140, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 27, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 17, "under_favored": 10 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 101364 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 38982 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 36870 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 17569 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 12974 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 11221 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 9552 }, { "label": "Pinnacle", "value": 8021 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 35 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 27 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 23 }, { "label": "0-1", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 17 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "0-2", "value": 15 }, { "label": "3-0", "value": 12 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 50 }, { "label": "2", "value": 67 }, { "label": "3", "value": 60 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 63 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 257994, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 116 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 59 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 65 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 240, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 1, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 2, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 4, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 9, "hit_rate": 44.4 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 11, "hit_rate": 27.3 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 4, "hit_rate": 75 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 27 } ], "hit_rate": 51.2, "hit_count": 123, "miss_count": 117, "risk_score": 30, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T19:50:58.567165+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_visual_140_goal_scoreline_visual", "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲???????????", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲??240??2.5???51.2%?????57.5%??????1-1, 2-1, 1-0, 0-1, 1-2??????????????????????1-0/2-0?", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "rates": { "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "favorite_hit_rate": 48.1, "low_odds_trap_rate": 0, "draw_low_odds_hit_rate": 30 }, "league": "西甲", "season": 2025, "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "chart_type": "league_odds_result_dashboard", "sample_rows": [ { "比分": "3-0", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391150, "总进球": 3, "favorite_min_odd": 1.56 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": null, "API 比赛 ID": 1391154, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": null }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391152, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.742 }, { "比分": "0-2", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391157, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 1.748 }, { "比分": "5-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391158, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 1.706 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391160, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 2.122 }, { "比分": "2-2", "result": "平局", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391166, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 2.557 }, { "比分": "0-1", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391159, "总进球": 1, "favorite_min_odd": 1.713 }, { "比分": "2-3", "result": "客队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391178, "总进球": 5, "favorite_min_odd": 2.07 }, { "比分": "3-1", "result": "主队", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391151, "总进球": 4, "favorite_min_odd": 1.758 }, { "比分": "1-1", "result": "平局", "favorite": "主队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391165, "总进球": 2, "favorite_min_odd": 2.435 }, { "比分": "2-4", "result": "客队", "favorite": "客队", "API 比赛 ID": 1391149, "总进球": 6, "favorite_min_odd": 2.597 } ], "top_markets": [ { "label": "Exact Score", "value": 21558 }, { "label": "Player Singles", "value": 11814 }, { "label": "Goals Over/Under", "value": 10144 }, { "label": "Player Fouls Committed", "value": 10014 }, { "label": "Player Triples", "value": 8870 }, { "label": "Correct Score - First Half", "value": 8605 }, { "label": "亚洲盘口", "value": 8078 }, { "label": "Corners Over Under", "value": 7066 } ], "truth_policy": "仅基于数据库中真实API fixture赛果和已保存赔率快照统计；缺失项按样本不足处理，不编造。", "api_league_id": 140, "over_under_2_5": { "sample": 27, "market_direction_counts": { "over_favored": 17, "under_favored": 10 }, "market_direction_hit_rate": 55.6 }, "top_bookmakers": [ { "label": "Bet365", "value": 101364 }, { "label": "Betano", "value": 38982 }, { "label": "1xBet", "value": 36870 }, { "label": "Marathonbet", "value": 17569 }, { "label": "10Bet", "value": 12974 }, { "label": "Unibet", "value": 11221 }, { "label": "William Hill", "value": 9552 }, { "label": "Pinnacle", "value": 8021 } ], "top_scorelines": [ { "label": "1-1", "value": 35 }, { "label": "2-1", "value": 27 }, { "label": "1-0", "value": 23 }, { "label": "0-1", "value": 17 }, { "label": "1-2", "value": 17 }, { "label": "2-0", "value": 17 }, { "label": "0-2", "value": 15 }, { "label": "3-0", "value": 12 } ], "goal_distribution": [ { "label": "0-1", "value": 50 }, { "label": "2", "value": 67 }, { "label": "3", "value": 60 }, { "label": "4+", "value": 63 } ], "odds_snapshot_rows": 257994, "result_distribution": [ { "label": "主胜", "value": 116 }, { "label": "平局", "value": 59 }, { "label": "客胜", "value": 65 } ], "visualization_ready": "是", "finished_match_count": 240, "favorite_min_odd_buckets": [ { "命中": 1, "label": "<1.45", "sample": 1, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 2, "label": "1.45-1.69", "sample": 2, "hit_rate": 100 }, { "命中": 4, "label": "1.70-1.99", "sample": 9, "hit_rate": 44.4 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.00-2.49", "sample": 11, "hit_rate": 27.3 }, { "命中": 3, "label": "2.50-3.19", "sample": 4, "hit_rate": 75 }, { "命中": 0, "label": ">=3.20", "sample": 0, "hit_rate": 0 } ], "odds_covered_match_count": 27 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 51.2, "pattern_type": "league_visual_goal_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_visual_odds_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" }, { "id": "16839129-c797-48cd-8347-5d829913a696", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "hit_rate": 51.2, "hit_count": 123, "miss_count": 117, "risk_score": 12, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T18:30:00.798482+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_hist_140_goal_market", "pattern_type": "league_goal_market_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲近半年进球/大小球经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲近半年均球2.73，2.5球以上占比51.2%，双方进球占比57.5%，1球及以下占比20.8%，当前标记为进球分布均衡。比分预测不得机械集中1-0/2-0，应按该联赛进球底盘和双方近期攻防重新分配0-0、1-1、2-1、2-2、3-1、3-2等候选。", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [ "1390947", "1390939", "1390940", "1390945", "1390948", "1390946", "1390941", "1390944" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 51.2, "pattern_type": "league_goal_market_pattern", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" }, { "id": "3c67b501-926b-479c-ba58-f316d94e79bb", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "199ce691-c688-4f22-ab92-551d65c66618", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "f14bc9fb-fbf0-40c9-9dc2-b7d07d0ef435", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "98096317-1854-456d-bbaa-58600d34906e", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "877ffc59-013b-4ce7-86c7-5e246929c0ae", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "ada62ec3-0e63-40cd-b23f-608d7ef8085b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "hit_rate": 100, "hit_count": 16, "miss_count": 0, "risk_score": 35, "更新时间": "2026-05-13T11:59:25.304116+00:00", "league_name": "日职", "pattern_key": "odds:日职:三市场:home_win:home_win:hit", "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 16, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced", "pattern_title": "欧赔结构与赛果复盘经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-06", "pattern_summary": "日职 中，赛前方向 home_win、实际结果 home_win、赔率覆盖 三市场。该经验用于校准低赔热门、平赔防范、客胜高赔和赔率结构陷阱。", "source_match_id": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "warning_signals": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "confidence_score": 86, "counter_evidence": [ { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 98、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 98、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 85、推荐池 A 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 81、推荐池 B 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。" } ], "失败原因": "预测命中，无失败原因。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 69、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" }, { "failure_codes": [ { "code": "no_failure_prediction_hit", "message": "预测命中，无失败原因。", "standard_code": "预测命中", "detailed_analysis": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "失败原因": "本场胜平负预测命中，赛前结论 home_win 与实际 home_win 一致；后续应沉淀该类盘口、推荐分 55、推荐池 C 的成功样本，用于相似比赛加权参考。" } ], "positive_signals": [ { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "实际赛果": "主胜" }, { "命中": "是", "比赛 ID": "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8", "实际赛果": "主胜" } ], "source_review_id": "38efb0e5-d908-4eca-9796-36052ec3502d", "example_match_ids": [ "199ce691-c688-4f22-ab92-551d65c66618", "f14bc9fb-fbf0-40c9-9dc2-b7d07d0ef435", "98096317-1854-456d-bbaa-58600d34906e", "877ffc59-013b-4ce7-86c7-5e246929c0ae", "ada62ec3-0e63-40cd-b23f-608d7ef8085b", "d86111f4-2bdc-47ea-94ce-724c99942b9b", "57fc5aa6-e3e8-47bd-83c0-334300f0034b", "5c5cba31-99fe-4041-8600-c4ef408681b8" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "日职", "hit_rate": 100, "pattern_type": "欧赔规律", "sample_count": 16, "source_scope": "sporttery_synced" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于校验欧赔低赔热门、平赔防范和客胜高赔是否存在诱导或真实支持。 当前样本命中率较好，可作为支持证据，但仍需结合实时情报。" }, { "id": "a3e04617-3a71-4d17-aebc-2ecb6dc07c87", "active": "是", "evidence": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "hit_rate": 48.3, "hit_count": 116, "miss_count": 124, "risk_score": 15, "更新时间": "2026-05-16T18:30:00.798482+00:00", "league_name": "西甲", "pattern_key": "20260517_hist_140_result_distribution", "pattern_type": "league_result_distribution", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill", "pattern_title": "西甲近半年赛果结构经验", "experience_date": "2026-05-17", "pattern_summary": "西甲近半年已采集240场、完赛240场：主胜48.3%、平局24.6%、客胜27.1%。预测时先用该联赛赛果底盘校准胜平负，若当前赔率方向与联赛底盘冲突，需要降低推荐分池并要求更多盘口/战意证据。", "source_match_id": null, "warning_signals": [], "confidence_score": 85, "counter_evidence": [], "positive_signals": [ { "window": "2025-11-17至2026-05-17", "avg_goals": 2.73, "btts_rate": 57.5, "draw_rate": 24.6, "odds_note": "赔率/盘口仅统计本地已采样快照；样本不足时不生成强盘口结论。", "over25_rate": 51.2, "away_win_rate": 27.1, "fixture_count": 240, "home_win_rate": 48.3, "finished_count": 240, "top_scorelines": [ [ "0-1", 2 ], [ "1-0", 1 ], [ "4-0", 1 ], [ "1-3", 1 ], [ "2-1", 1 ], [ "0-0", 1 ] ], "odds_snapshot_rows_in_db": 310083, "under_or_equal_1_goal_rate": 20.8 } ], "source_review_id": null, "example_match_ids": [ "1390947", "1390939", "1390940", "1390945", "1390948", "1390946", "1390941", "1390944" ], "applicable_conditions": { "league": "西甲", "hit_rate": 48.3, "pattern_type": "league_result_distribution", "sample_count": 240, "source_scope": "league_historical_fixture_backfill" }, "next_prediction_usage": "用于在最终预测前提供相似历史复盘经验和风险反证。 当前样本或命中率有限，只作为风险提示和待复盘经验。" } ], "query": { "league": "西甲", "away_team": "赫塔费", "home_team": "埃尔切", "market_policy": "league_team_odds_handicap_total_goals_risk_flags", "is_sporttery_synced": "是" }, "policy": "prediction_must_consult_experience_packages_before_final_output", "summary": "命中 5 条历史经验，优先参考：平局 / 爆冷陷阱复盘经验；预测需同时检查其反证和风险分。", "available": "是", "risk_count": 0, "has_conflict": "否", "conflict_count": 0, "conflict_policy": "高样本、高命中率、同联赛、体彩同步优先；冲突无法解决时降低推荐分并写入复盘。", "supporting_count": 5 }, "data_coverage_report": { "比赛 ID": "e7b6b3d3-814e-40aa-8ebe-6fd017e52396", "available": "是", "API 比赛 ID": 1391182, "竞彩编号": "周日025", "generated_at": "2026-05-16T20:05:23.831512+00:00", "stale_fields": [], "agent_reports": [ { "role": "分析双方实力、阵容、联赛定位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "球队基础实力分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析近 5/10 场趋势和进失球", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "近期状态分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析主场优势和客场波动", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "主客场分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析 H2H 但不过度迷信", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "历史交锋分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析欧赔结构、赔率区间和热门陷阱", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "欧赔分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析让球、升降盘、退盘和水位", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "亚洲盘口分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析总进球预期和比分风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "大小球分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析伤停、停赛、预计首发和轮换", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "伤停首发分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析保级、争冠、杯赛、欧战和体能", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "战意赛程分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析公开新闻、发布会和本地导入情报", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "情报新闻分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析热门过热、赔率反向和弱队战意", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "爆冷风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "平", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] }, { "role": "分析异常盘口、极端轮换和战意异常风险", "data_used": [ "match", "赔率", "球队记忆", "experience_library" ], "agent_name": "异常风险分身", "conclusion": "该分身已纳入数据覆盖预检、补足动作和经验规律库，最终结论由总决策综合裁决。", "risk_flags": { "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ] }, "risk_score": 23, "main_evidence": [ "埃尔切 vs 赫塔费", "overall_coverage=57.0" ], "suggested_1x2": "胜", "impact_factors": [], "confidence_score": 57, "counter_evidence": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_used": [ "local_import", "稳定数据源", "public_web_plan" ], "missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "suggested_scorelines": [ "2-1", "1-1" ], "suggested_total_goals": [ 2, 3 ] } ], "missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "trigger_reason": "manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild", "fallback_policy": "API 不足时依次使用 stable feed、本地/浏览器导入、公开情报、球队记忆、历史复盘、经验规律库和联赛风格，不编造缺失事实。", "h2h_coverage_score": 35, "supplement_actions": [ { "状态": "planned_or_best_effort", "缺失": "historical_review_memory", "sources": [ "api_football_retry", "sporttery_synced_feed", "稳定数据源", "local_browser_import", "local_text_import", "public_web_intelligence", "球队记忆", "prediction_experience_library" ], "blocking": "否" } ], "form_coverage_score": 45, "is_sporttery_synced": "是", "odds_coverage_score": 100, "teams_coverage_score": 90, "injury_coverage_score": 45, "lineup_coverage_score": 45, "overall_coverage_score": 57, "schedule_coverage_score": 55, "public_collection_policy": "只使用公开可访问来源；不绕过登录、验证码、付费墙，不保存 Cookie 或密钥。", "experience_coverage_score": 45, "motivation_coverage_score": 50, "still_missing_but_handled": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "intelligence_coverage_score": 60 }, "odds_market_coverage": { "欧赔胜平负": "是", "大小球": "是", "亚洲盘口": "是" }, "intelligence_impact_matrix": { "policy": "agent_intelligence_then_experience_rules_then_risk_filter_before_final_prediction", "summary": "分身报告 12 组，命中经验 5 条；支持经验 5 条，风险经验 0 条。", "比赛 ID": "e7b6b3d3-814e-40aa-8ebe-6fd017e52396", "agent_count": 12, "over_goal_impact": 0, "under_goal_impact": 0, "away_attack_impact": 0.12, "home_attack_impact": 0.12, "away_defense_impact": 0.12, "home_defense_impact": 0.12, "abnormal_risk_impact": 0, "experience_risk_count": 0, "coverage_missing_fields": [ "historical_review_memory" ], "draw_probability_impact": 0, "experience_support_count": 5, "upset_probability_impact": 0.1, "recommendation_score_impact": 5, "scoreline_distribution_impact": "经验命中时拓展非机械比分；数据缺口较多时降低比分权重。" } }
  • 风控策略｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险等级": "高", "风险扣分": 0 }

反方风险

  • data_gap｜[ "首发/伤停", "motivation" ]
  • market_risk｜{ "风险标签": [ "available_data_prediction", "auto_gap_collection_triggered", "market_probability_baseline", "poisson_score_distribution", "kelly_ev_filter", "analysis_only_not_high_confidence_pool", "draw_detector_used", "similar_review_memory_used", "hierarchical_pattern_memory_used", "prediction_experience_used" ], "风险扣分": 0 }

情报来源

  • 系统缺口审计｜数据缺口补采计划：埃尔切 vs 赫塔费｜可信度 100

    首发/伤停缺失：赛前持续补采伤停、首发、阵型、关键球员状态，并在 T-30m 重新刷新。；数据覆盖率偏低：按缺失组件逐项补采；覆盖不足时仍必须给出胜/平/负、两个比分和两个总进球，只在爆冷或异常风险高时才标记不建议投注。；战意赛程信息缺失：补采积分排名、晋级/保级/争冠动机、赛程密度和轮换压力。

  • api-football-local-pipeline｜西甲积分排名与战意线索｜可信度 82

    主队排名17、积分39、近况LDLWW；客队排名7、积分48、近况WDLLW。该信息用于判断争冠、欧战、保级或排名压力，不单独构成推荐。

  • search_query_plan｜team_memory 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃尔切 赫塔费 西甲 2026-05-17 球队记忆 复盘 赔率变化 赛果趋势

  • search_query_plan｜h2h 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃尔切 赫塔费 历史交锋 交手记录 赛果 head to head

  • search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：赫塔费 西甲 近期战绩 近10场 赛果 recent results form

  • search_query_plan｜team_history 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃尔切 西甲 近期战绩 近10场 赛果 recent results form

  • search_query_plan｜news 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃尔切 赫塔费 西甲 2026-05-17 新闻 最新

  • search_query_plan｜motivation 补采计划｜可信度 60

    补充查询：埃尔切 赫塔费 西甲 2026-05-17 战意 赛程 排名

数据覆盖率

每次预测保存特征快照，数据缺口会记录已执行的补充动作和剩余风险。

覆盖评分

70/100

覆盖等级

中

快照时间

2026-05-16T20:05:44.113590+00:00

历史交锋: 已覆盖news: 已覆盖赔率: 已覆盖近期状态: 已覆盖motivation: 补充中首发/伤停: 补充中

缺失项：首发/伤停、motivation

  • 补采伤停、首发、阵型和教练信息；临场前再次刷新。
  • 补采积分排名、赛程密度、杯赛/保级/争冠战意。

球队记忆

把历史赛果、复盘命中/失败原因和核验赛果沉淀为下一轮预测的真实上下文；缺失时说明替代证据，不编造。

本场球队历史记忆不足，需要通过完赛结果、公开赛果导入和复盘样本持续补齐。

主队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中
历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

客队记忆

仅来自已入库完赛记录、复盘与核验赛果。

沉淀中
历史场次：-复盘样本：-胜平负：- / - / -场均积分：-复盘方向命中率：-核验赛果证据：-

暂无可核验历史样本，已在缺口审计中作为球队记忆缺失处理。

风控与首席裁决

风控优先于推荐，D 池表示不推荐，E 池表示异常监控。

drawD低风险
最终方向：draw推荐分：32允许推荐：是是否否决：否

系统当前倾向平局方向，但该结论已结合基础模型、赔率信号和风控规则进行降级检查。足球比赛存在不确定性，请仅作为数据分析参考。

  • medium · 基础推荐分低于 60，降为谨慎观察；只有爆冷、异常盘口、极端轮换或赛中/完赛等硬风险才直接不建议投注。池位上限：C
  • medium · 基础模型信心分偏低。

最新赔率

仅展示项目后端已入库的赔率快照，不直接访问外部数据源。

公司玩法方向赔率时间
10Bet胜平负主胜2.280005/17 02:02
10Bet胜平负平局2.840005/17 02:02
10Bet胜平负客胜3.600005/17 02:02
10BetHome/Away主胜1.500005/17 02:02
10BetHome/Away客胜2.400005/17 02:02
10BetSecond Half Winner主胜2.620005/17 02:02
10BetSecond Half Winner平局2.100005/17 02:02
10BetSecond Half Winner客胜3.800005/17 02:02
10Bet亚洲盘口Home -0.52.200005/17 02:02
10Bet亚洲盘口Away -0.51.620005/17 02:02
10Bet亚洲盘口Home +01.530005/17 02:02
10Bet亚洲盘口Away +02.400005/17 02:02

胜平负基础概率 / 市场参考

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

主胜

41.0%

赔率 2.2800

平

33.0%

赔率 2.8400

客胜

26.0%

赔率 3.6000

赔率隐含概率仅为市场参考，不是最终胜率。

赔率走势

按欧赔胜平负、大小球、亚洲盘口分别整理盘口走势，用于交叉验证预测方向。

欧赔胜平负

home_win

公司/盘口：13；覆盖：available

大小球

under

公司/盘口：133；覆盖：available

亚洲盘口

away_handicap

公司/盘口：85；覆盖：available

欧赔胜平负
公司主胜平局客胜异常
10Bet2.28 / 41.0%2.84 / 33.0%3.60 / 26.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet3.00 / 30.1%3.70 / 24.4%1.98 / 45.6%thin_odds_history
888Sport2.25 / 41.2%2.80 / 33.1%3.60 / 25.7%thin_odds_history
Bet3651.57 / 57.2%13.00 / 6.9%2.50 / 35.9%thin_odds_history
BetVictor2.25 / 42.1%3.00 / 31.6%3.60 / 26.3%thin_odds_history
Betano2.32 / 41.1%2.82 / 33.8%3.80 / 25.1%thin_odds_history
Betfair2.25 / 42.5%3.00 / 31.9%3.75 / 25.5%thin_odds_history
Dafabet2.30 / 41.9%3.00 / 32.1%3.70 / 26.0%thin_odds_history
Marathonbet2.35 / 41.3%2.92 / 33.2%3.80 / 25.5%thin_odds_history
Pinnacle2.29 / 41.6%2.86 / 33.3%3.80 / 25.1%thin_odds_history
大小球
公司盘口大球小球异常
10Bet3.55.25 / 18.0%1.15 / 82.0%thin_odds_history
10Bet0.52.15 / 43.7%1.67 / 56.3%thin_odds_history
10Bet1.55.50 / 16.8%1.11 / 83.2%thin_odds_history
10Bet2.58.00 / 11.6%1.05 / 88.4%thin_odds_history
10Bet4.51.60 / 55.6%2.00 / 44.4%thin_odds_history
1xBet2.51.43 / 63.6%2.50 / 36.4%thin_odds_history
1xBet3.04.30 / 21.7%1.19 / 78.3%thin_odds_history
1xBet3.51.95 / 47.0%1.73 / 53.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet4.01.30 / 71.0%3.18 / 29.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet4.51.53 / 60.6%2.35 / 39.4%thin_odds_history
亚洲盘口
公司盘口主队客队异常
10Bet-0.52.20 / 42.4%1.62 / 57.6%thin_odds_history
10Bet01.62 / 57.6%2.20 / 42.4%thin_odds_history
1xBet-0.252.34 / 39.5%1.53 / 60.5%thin_odds_history
1xBet-0.754.30 / 21.4%1.17 / 78.6%thin_odds_history
1xBet-12.34 / 39.1%1.50 / 60.9%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.254.16 / 22.1%1.18 / 77.9%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.55.00 / 18.0%1.10 / 82.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet-1.756.01 / 15.1%1.07 / 84.9%thin_odds_history
1xBet-22.36 / 39.0%1.51 / 61.0%thin_odds_history
1xBet-2.52.60 / 35.3%1.42 / 64.7%thin_odds_history

多 AI 分身摘要

这里只展示分身结论、信心分、风险分和数据缺失提示，不展示过多内部 JSON。

首席裁决分身

首席裁决 AI

首席裁决已生成当前最终结论。

信心分：55风险分：25倾向：draw

更新时间：05/17 04:05

risk_control_agent

风控官 AI

风控规则限制推荐池，需要降低展示强度。

信心分：75风险分：33倾向：downgrade

更新时间：05/17 04:05

战意赛程分身

分析争冠保级、杯赛欧战、赛程密度、体能和战意。

已有战意/赛程线索，可作为辅助判断。

信心分：58风险分：46倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:52

赔率市场分身

分析欧赔、亚盘、大小球、赔率变化和盘口一致性。

赔率方向暂不清晰。

信心分：48风险分：66倾向：unclear

更新时间：05/17 02:52

反方审查分身

专门判断热门过热、赔率诱导、战意不稳和弱队爆冷条件。

数据暂缺

存在需要复核的反方意见。

信心分：65风险分：75倾向：downgrade_suggested

更新时间：05/17 02:52

量化模型分身

分析球队整体实力、基础概率、主客差异和模型方向。

基础模型倾向：主队方向。

信心分：46风险分：65倾向：home_win

更新时间：05/17 02:52

首发阵容分身

分析伤停、停赛、首发、预计轮换和阵容稳定性。

已有阵容或赛前名单情报，可供后续阵容稳定性检查。

信心分：66风险分：38倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:52

球员情报分身

分析近况、状态趋势、核心球员表现和球队波动。

已有伤停/球员情报记录，可作为后续风控输入。

信心分：64风险分：44倾向：use_as_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:52

数据质量分身

分析 H2H、交锋风格、历史进球分布和数据覆盖可信度。

数据暂缺

数据基本可用。

信心分：100风险分：0倾向：continue_analysis

更新时间：05/17 02:52

新闻可信度分身

分析资料库新闻、公开情报、来源可信度和突发信息。

已有公开新闻/赛前资讯可作为辅助证据。

信心分：65风险分：38倾向：use_as_context

更新时间：05/17 02:52

裁判环境分身

分析裁判、天气、场地、异常盘口、放水或极端轮换风险。

数据暂缺

暂无裁判姓名和裁判历史统计。

信心分：25风险分：58倾向：neutral

更新时间：05/17 02:52

战术教练分身

分析双方进攻防守风格、节奏、压迫和进球形态。

从基础模型角度看，当前方向为主队方向，但缺少战术层面的硬数据。

信心分：62风险分：42倾向：conservative_reference

更新时间：05/17 02:52

预测版本时间线

展示预测版本类型、触发原因、创建时间和推荐分变化。

  1. 版本 7

    RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild

    05/17 04:05

    推荐分：55

  2. 版本 6

    ODDS_UPDATE · manual_20260517_visual_experience_rebuild

    05/17 04:05

    推荐分：52

  3. 版本 5

    RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_final_experience_pass

    05/17 02:52

    推荐分：44

  4. 版本 4

    RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_post_experience

    05/17 02:48

    推荐分：63

  5. 版本 3

    ODDS_UPDATE · admin_generate_public_display

    05/17 02:40

    推荐分：55

  6. 版本 2

    RISK_DECISION · manual_20260517_full_batch

    05/17 02:21

    推荐分：27

  7. 版本 1

    INITIAL · admin_generate_public_display

    05/17 02:13

    推荐分：55

赛后深度复盘

复盘预测方向、比分、总进球、赔率变化、分身正误和下一轮训练样本。

暂无复盘记录

比赛完场后自动生成；若未生成，可在后台执行 Phase 21 深度复盘任务。